Hey there weekday warriors,

Today we’ll get into the Fed’s decision & what J-Poww had to say at his presser… and break down the biggest IPO of 2024. Enjoy the next 4 minutes and 2 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.

Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,

- tyler

+ US stocks “were a mixed bag on Wednesday as investors digested commentary from the Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell after the central bank held interest rates steady at its latest policy meeting.” (Yahoo! Finance)

+ The 10-year Treasury yield “fell on Wednesday, as investors digested the Federal Reserve’s move to ease the pace of balance sheet reduction, and the central bank’s chairman Jerome Powell ruled out the possibility of a rate hike next month." (CNBC)

+ Oil “fell about 3% to a seven-week low on Wednesday on a surprise build in U.S. crude stocks, the prospect of a Middle East ceasefire agreement and as hopes faded for near-term U.S. interest rate cuts that could boost oil demand.” (Reuters)

+ Bitcoin “slid to its lowest level in over two months to kick off May, as the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady.” (CNBC)

+ The three most talked about stocks on WallStreetBets in the past 24 hours were: 1) Nvidia -3.9% 2) Carvana +5.0% / +32.6% after hours 3) Trump Media -9.6%

The market moves you need to know about…

– Nobody misses the pandemic more than Etsy (ok, maybe Zoom). Shares of the marketplace full of stuff people probably bought on Temu tumbled 11.6% after reporting that gross merchandising sales fell.

+ Bah gawd, that’s New York Community Bank’s music. The down bad bank gained 28.3% after outlining “a clear path to profitability” over the next two years. To be fair, it also reported another massive loss on Wednesday…

– DoorDash dove 15.2% in extended trading after reporting a larger-than-expected loss… and a disappointing outlook.

If you had the opportunity to invest in the biggest electronics products when they launched into big box retail, would you?

Ring changed doorbells and Nest changed thermostats. Early investors in these smart-home companies earned massive returns, but the opportunity to invest was limited to a select, wealthy few.

Not anymore.

RYSE has just launched in 100+ Best Buy stores, and you can still invest at only $1.50/share before their name becomes known nationwide. But hurry, their share price has already grown 20% from their last round.

They have patented the only mass-market shade automation device, and their exclusive deal with Best Buy resembles that which led Ring and Nest to their billion-dollar buyouts.

The window to invest is closing…

Would really appreciate it if you took a minute out of your day to check out Ryse. Sponsors are how I keep the lights on around here. Thanks in advance.

C'mon, do something, J-Poww

I’ve got some good news. And I’ve got some bad news…

The good news? The Fed didn’t hike rates yesterday. The bad news? It didn’t cut either…

Following its two-day FOMC meeting, the US Central Bank held rates steady at 5.25%-5.50%. Friendly reminder: that’s where it’s been since July last year.

Of course, the decision wasn’t exactly a surprise. Inflation has been more stubborn than an Ivy League student blockaded in a campus building.

The move that did catch some investors off guard was the Fed’s decision to slow the rate at which it lets Treasurys roll off its balance sheet. The move is seen as the Central Bank “easing” (ever so slightly) its tight monetary policy.

Of course, it was J-Poww’s post-meeting presser that put a**es in seats…

So what did Jay say?

“It’s unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike. I’d say it’s unlikely.”

My man.

Unsurprisingly, markets jumped on news that investors’ worst fear (besides YOLOing into Starbucks ahead of earnings) won’t be realized… for now.

Jay did keep it real, though. He wasn’t afraid to point out that he’s not totally stoked about the progress being made on inflation: “In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress towards the Committee’s 2% inflation objective,

Perhaps that’s why the market’s gains evaporated into the close…

+ “Look at me. I’m the captain now.”

Viking has just unseated Norwegian in the Big 3 of cruise lines. It joins Royal Caribbean and Carnival.

The cruise operator that described its customer as a “thinking person” in its prospectus (think: no peasants allowed) just had the biggest IPO of the year.

It priced its shares at $24 on Tuesday and began trading at $26.15.

So how’d it go? Well if its IPO were a movie it’d be the first half of Titanic. You know, the part with the steamy s*x scenes and Irish step dancing. VIK closed up 8% on the day.

+ Sure, you might be having a bad day. But you definitely aren’t having as bad of a day Carvana (+5.0% / +32.6% after hours) shorts…

The glorified used car lot went parabolic after pulling off a comeback that they’re going to write Harvard Business School case studies about.

After coming thisss close to bankruptcy in 2022, CVNA just reported its best quarter of all time. It beat easily on the top and bottom lines and swung to a profit.

The inventor of the car vending machine prioritized profitability over growth in its turnaround plan… which was almost certainly drawn up by some Dartmouth grad from McKinsey.

+ Scott Sheffield gives major “foxhole guy” vibes…

The FTC just cleared Exxon’s (-1.8%) $60B acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources (-0.6%). And both sides have Scottie, the former CEO of Pioneer, to thank. Federal regulators agreed to sign off on the deal… if Scott promised not to join Exxon’s board.

Uncle Sam alleged that Scott had colluded with OPEC in hopes of inflating oil prices, which is frowned upon, apparently.

The deal will more than double Exxon’s production in the Permian Basin in the US.

+ Just in case the Fed’s decision didn’t make it abundantly clear that we will get no rate cuts, I’ll just leave this right here…

Per usual, jobs data came in stronger than expected. ADP reported that the US added 192k new payrolls, vs. 183k consensus.

We’ll get the official government jobs report on Friday.

+ The Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, offers no relief from high borrowing costs — what that means for your money (Read)

+ The 6 Best Credit Cards for Balance Transfers (Read)

+ BlackRock’s Plan for Your Retirement: A 401(k) With a Monthly Check (Read)

+ The New Math of Driving Your Car Till the Wheels Fall Off (Read)

BTW, some of these links include affiliate offers.

Yesterday, earnings reports from Qualcomm, CVS, DoorDash, Carvana, and Etsy were on our radar. Here’s how they did…

+ Qualcomm (+4.0% after hours) beat on the top and bottom lines, but more importantly, indicated that it expects demand for smartphone chips to grow. Thanks, AI.

+ CVS (-16.8%) got rekt after missing on the top line and revising its 2024 guidance… downwards. How bad was it? One analyst said he “Did not even believe the CVS numbers when they were released.”

+ Check out more on DoorDash, Carvana, and Etsy above…

Here's what we’re keeping an eye on today...

+ Novo Nordisk, Cigna, Moderna, Wayfair, MSG Sports, Penn Entertainment, and Peloton report this AM

+ Apple, Booking Holdings, Mercado Libre, Monster, Block, Coinbase, and DraftKings report after the close

+ Weekly initial jobless claims data drops

Yesterday I asked… Have you ever been to a Dave & Buster’s?

Of those who have been (most of you), it was a pretty even split between “It was awesome” and “It kinda sucks.” Now I don’t know whether I should go or not…

Here’s today’s question…

I’ve sent out plenty of surveys, but I’m not sure if I’ve ever asked for direct feedback in the newsletter in the past 7 years. So…

What do you want to see more of in the newsletter? What am I missing that other newsletters do well? I want to make TWC the only newsletter you need.

You can reply directly to this email or shoot me a note at [email protected].

Oh, and…

Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from?

No, it’s the face of an individual who is financially irresponsible/dumb enough to be talked into spending money on a family photo shoot that he could have just done with his iPhone. So, act accordingly...

This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional