Today, we’re getting into the Vietnam trade deal, another brutal quarter for Tesla, and a brutal jobs report. But first...

In the July 3, 2019 edition of The Water Coolest we talked about Adidas’ foray into AI before it was cool. To celebrate a partnership with Arsenal, Adidas was using artificial intelligence to generate images of soccer jerseys with users’ Twitter handles emblazoned on them.

This went about as well as you’d expect. Users with horrific Twitter handles realized quickly that Adidas had failed to put any guardrails in place. All sorts of tragedies and terrible people were referenced… right next to Adidas and Arsenal’s logos. Before you can say, “what could possibly go wrong?” Adidas was forced to shut down the experiment and beg the public for forgiveness.

And, welp, not much has changed 6 years later…

Enjoy the next 4 minutes and 41 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.

Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,

– tyler

PS, loving The Water Coolest? Forward it to someone who is probably going to lose a finger on July 4th. If you CC me ([email protected]), I’ll send you both something.

PPS, did someone with great taste (who thinks you might get your JPP on) forward this to you? Subscribe here.

PPPS, I will be celebrating America’s Independence/getting the meat sweats tomorrow. So, no newsletter. See you on Monday. Happy 4th, you beautiful b*stards.

I want to get out ahead of this and go on the record as saying I stand with transshippers and anyone currently transshipping…

Ok, now that we’ve got that out of the way…

A few days ahead of the White House trade deal deadline, Vietnam inked an agreement with the US. The Southeast Asian country where Lt. Dan lost his legs will pay 20% tariffs on all exports to the US. In return, the US will pay… nothing.

Plus, Vietnam has agreed that its goods will be hit with a 40% tax if they originate in another country. The process, known as transshipping, is a tactic used by countries (I see you, China) whereby goods are shipped through nations with lower tariff rates. Because if you ain’t cheatin, you ain’t tryin.

Not that Vietnam had a choice…

Exports to the US accounted for more than 30% of ‘Nam’s GDP. Don’t believe me? Take a look at where your pants and shirt were made.

Broader markets rose slightly on the news, but brands like Nike, which stand to benefit bigly from continued access to an important source of cheap child labor, ripped.

Who’s next?

‘Nam joins a short list of countries that have actually inked a trade deal with the US. China and the UK are the others. 3 down, 192 to go.

Donny Duties has indicated that Uncle Sam is close to coming to terms with others, but time is running out. The original 90-day tariff timeout is set to expire on July 8th. That is, of course, unless the President pulls a TikTok and delays the deadline…

The wealthiest companies tend to target the biggest markets. For example, NVIDIA skyrocketed nearly 200% higher in the last year with the $214B AI market’s tailwind. That’s why investors like SoftBank are so excited about Pacaso.

Created by the team that grew Zillow to a $16B valuation, Pacaso’s digital marketplace offers easy purchase, ownership, and enjoyment of luxury vacation homes. And—their target market is worth a whopping $1.3T. No wonder Pacaso has earned over $100M in gross profits. Now, they’re taking their biggest step yet – with a focus on international markets.

Their first two Paris properties sold out in record time, so they just added another. They already have seven homes in Cabo, and they just bought their most expensive European property yet in London. And this expansion is truly just beginning.

* See ad disclosures below

+ If it wasn’t for being the richest guy on Earth and all that unprotected s*x Elon’s life would really suck lately…

For the second consecutive quarter, Tesla’s $TSLA ( ▲ 3.5% ) deliveries fell. Well, “fell” is probably being generous. TSLA deliveries plummeted 14% in Q2 thanks to a laundry list of issues plaguing the company: a stale lineup, falling demand for EVs, increased competition, and… Elon being Elon.

So shares tanked, right? Right?!

Nope. Tesla popped nearly 5% on the delivery report, mostly because the dropoff was less of a sh*tshow than expected by the Street.

+ The bad news? ADP employment data showed the first decrease in jobs in 2 years.

The good news? Investors trust ADP’s job report about as much as Jim Cramer’s stock picks…

According to the private sector payroll report, the US economy lost 33k jobs in June. That was the first contraction since March of 2023. Woof.

But wait, it gets worse…

Economists expected America would add 100k jobs. Oh, and May's job growth was revised downward from 37k to 29k.

Of course, the ADP jobs report is the ‘Madoff Investments audit’ of economic data. The pre-c*m of jobs reports usually differs pretty significantly from the official government data (due to drop today). Seriously, these two things are both job reports in the way that ‘The Wire’ and ‘Love on the Spectrum’ are both TV shows…

The “official” Bureau of Labor Statistics data drops this AM. Don’t expect markets to shrug off any yuge disappointment like they did yesterday.

+ Sam Altman has literally zero chill.

The OpenAI founder is quickly becoming the last popular guy at billionaire orgies at Bohemian Grove. He continues to publicly beef with Elon. He threw Zuck under the bus for poaching talent. And now the ChatGPT maker is raining on Robinhood’s $HOOD ( ▲ 3.73% ) parade.

On the same day HOOD hit $100, OpenAI very publicly distanced itself from the “OpenAI equity tokens” Vlad and Co. started slinging earlier this week in Europe. On Twitter, OpenAI said this…

+ On the bright side, it’s a lot less depressing to drown your sorrows on a beach somewhere…

Microsoft $MSFT ( ▼ 0.04% ) is laying off another 9k employees, just in time for Independence Day and peak summer season. That represents just about 4% of its workforce.

So, why is MSFT padding the July unemployment data? Per an official statement: “THiS Is PaRt OF oUr OnGOing EfFort tO rEdUcE LaYeRs Of ManAgEmeNt.” Translation? Every middle manager with a Sebring and an ex-wife is about to be replaced by AI.

+ So many perks, so little interest. You can pay 0% interest for up to 21 months with some of the highest-rated credit cards in the game. The experts at Finance Buzz shared their top card picks for 2025. Check out the full list of top no-interest credit cards right now. [FYI, this is a partner post]

+ US stocks “moved higher to clinch more record highs on Wednesday as optimism over US trade deals rose at the same time that more signs of an intensifying labor market slowdown bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates.” (Yahoo! Finance)

+ The 10-year yield “rose on Wednesday as investors digested weak data for the jobs market and weighed the impact of President Donald Trump’s tax-and-spending package, which narrowly passed the Senate on Tuesday.” (CNBC)

+ Oil “rose 3% on Wednesday as Iran suspended cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog and the U.S. and Vietnam reached a trade deal, but a surprise build in U.S. crude supplies limited price gains somewhat.” (Reuters)

⏪ Yesterday…

+ Universal Pictures' Jurassic World Rebirth opened in the US

⏩ Today we’re keeping an eye on…

+ The European Central Bank will release the minutes from its last policy meeting

+ The June US Jobs Report will drop

Yesterday, I asked, “What's the most disrespectful thing you can call someone at work?”

35.2% of you voted “Kiddo.”

Here’s what some of you guys had to say…

Here’s today’s question…

Sorry for laughing…

Oh, and one more thing…

Sent from my Amazon Fire Phone. Please excuse any mistakes and typos.

Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from?

No, it’s the face of an individual who is financially irresponsible/dumb enough to be talked into spending money on a family photo shoot that he could have just done with his iPhone. So, act accordingly...

This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional.

Ad Disclosures

This is a paid advertisement for Pacaso’s Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular at invest.pacaso.com.