Hey there weekday warrior,

Unfortunately, I can’t help your portfolio. But I can distract you for a few minutes…

When you fill out the TWC Q2 2025 survey, not only will you be helping make The Water Coolest more enjoyable for yourself, but you’ll also help ensure it’s around for generations to come. Take the survey now ➡️

Enjoy the next 4 minutes and 7 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.

Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,

– tyler

Fallout boy

The White House: *fucks around*

Literally everyone: *finds out*

I’ve got good news for every TikTok stock guru who shares black and white quote graphics of Warren Buffett saying, “Be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful…”

For the second day in a row, the markets took a beating. The S&P 500 lost nearly 6% on Friday. The broad index is now down by more than 17% from its most recent high post-election in December.

Well, that's just great. You hear that, Ed? Bear market…

Spoiler: that means the S&P 500 is flirting with a bear market. The same can’t be said about the Nasdaq. The tech-heavy index is already down more than 20% from its most recent high.

And don’t freak out, but Jim Cramer thinks this was the calm before the storm.

Jimmy Chill believes Thursday and Friday were just the beginning and that we could see a (1987) Black Monday-like sell-off (friendly reminder: down 22%) as soon as… today.

And it appears that Jim has broken the inverse Cramer curse because US futures were down horrendous last night, and Asian markets plunged at the open. Japan’s Nikkei fell more than 8% at one point.

But remember, you guys, it always could be worse…

Meanwhile…

The Liberation Day fallout has been fast and furious.

Other countries have begun to return fire. China has slapped 34% tariffs on the US, matching those imposed on the People’s Republic. No word on if that includes the US trade secrets and the banned Nvidia chips they continue to hoover up.

Vietnam, one of the biggest losers of the trade war, has already come to the table and begged for mercy. The nation where Private Gump saved Lt. Dan offered to eliminate its tariff on the US. That sent shares of Lululemon $LULU ( ▼ 1.59% ) and Nike $NKE ( ▼ 1.05% ) soaring on news that their source of cheap (probably child) labor might not be impacted after all.

In Washington, J-Poww is one leaked group chat from his key card not working at the Federal Reserve. He warned that the trade war could turn inflation up to 11 and that the Fed won’t act until there is more certainty. Spoiler: POTUS wants Jerome to lower interest rates. And to be fair, he might not have a choice if Cramer is right…

Speaking of the hot seat… Elon Musk broke with his BFF, saying in an interview that he really wishes there were zero tariffs between the US and EU.

And individual companies are overreacting making moves too. Nintendo said it plans to delay the pre-sale of the new Switch 2 console it announced last week (it cited tariffs). And Klarna delayed its IPO plans after watching publicly traded buy now pay later rival Affirm $AFRM ( ▲ 1.99% )  see nearly 1/3 of its market cap wiped out in 2 days.

Do your part 🤝

Thanks in advance for taking the TWC Q2 2025 Survey.

It won’t take you more than a few minutes to complete (I will give extra time to anyone with a doctor’s note), but it is guaranteed to make your TWC experience at least 69% more enjoyable.

+ 75 more days of brainrot for America’s youth…

On Friday, POTUS gave ByteDance/the CCP another 75 days to figure out a deal for TikTok. #47 dropped the extension announcement on the only platform libs hate more than X right now (read: Truth Social).

The Don claims that despite “tremendous progress” being made on a mystery deal, it’s not quite there yet. Probably just a coincidence that the trade war is heating up and TikTok is a $50B pawn. The new absolute deadline that will definitely, 100% not be changed is now mid-June…

+ Not that anyone cared, but… the March jobs report came in hot. Nonfarm payrolls increased 228k for the month, beating estimates and well above February’s dismal 117k. Healthcare put the team on its back, adding 54k jobs. Meanwhile, federal government positions dropped by just 4k. For everyone going all “WTF, you had one job, Elon”… keep in mind that number might be misleading since employees receiving severance pay are still counted as employed.

+ Microsoft $MSFT ( ▼ 0.54% ) AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman had himself a Siobhan Roy moment Friday. During Clippy’s Microsoft’s 50th anniversary party, a software engineer interrupted Mustafa’s speech to call him a “war profiteer” for selling AI tech in defense systems to Israel. Then, later on the same day another software engineer copy/pasted that idea and interrupted a speech from CEO Satya Nadella with the same protest. Super original, guys…

+ The only thing worse than one activist investor is… three activist investors. Match $MTCH ( ▲ 1.5% ) got into a p*ssing match with activist investor Anson Funds, who criticized Match’s “anti-stockholder culture” while nominating three new directors. Friendly reminder: Match is already dealing with Elliott and Starboard Value pushing for a turnaround.

+ “Wasn’t me.” - Shaggy and Warren Buffett

The Oracle of Omaha denied wrongdoing on Friday after a viral video indicated that he had given President Trump the green light to tank the markets. Did I mention Donald Trump posted the video on Truth Social? What a time to be alive…

+ US stocks were “pounded for a second day Friday after China retaliated with new tariffs on U.S. goods, sparking fears President Donald Trump has ignited a global trade war that will lead to a recession.” (CNBC)

+ The 10-year yield “continued to plummet on Friday, with 10-year Treasury yield earlier falling below 4%, after China retaliated against President Donald Trump’s aggressive “reciprocal tariff” policy rollout, causing investors to flood into bonds for safety on fears of a global recession.” (CNBC)

+ Oil “plunged 7% on Friday to settle at their lowest in over three years as China ramped up tariffs on U.S. goods, escalating a trade war that has led investors to price in a higher probability of recession.” (Reuters)

+ Bitcoin “fell sharply to a near one-month low in early morning trade on Monday, extending recent losses as risk appetite was decimated by U.S. President Donald Trump imposing steep trade tariffs and sparking a global trade war.“ (Investing)

⏪ On Friday…

+ Warner Bros.' Minecraft movie premiered

+ The March US jobs report dropped

+ J-Poww spoke at the SABEW conference in Arlington, Virginia

⏩ Today we’re keeping an eye on…

+ Levi’s reports before the bell

+ Fatpipe IPOs

+ Speakers at the TED Conference include OpenAI's Sam Altman, former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, and Whole Foods Market founder John Mackey

Here’s today’s question…

It’s time to bring the referral program back.

Let’s decide what referral prizes you all want…

Oh, and one more thing…

Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from?

No, it’s the face of an individual who is financially irresponsible/dumb enough to be talked into spending money on a family photo shoot that he could have just done with his iPhone. So, act accordingly...

This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional.