💩 FUD times

And RIP Google

Author

Tyler Morin
August 06, 2024

In partnership with

Help bring down Big Ticket (sup, Ticketmaster) and its high fees. PromoTix is an event ticketing, marketing, and live-streaming startup that’s raising funds right now. Check out the investment terms by clicking the logo above.

Hey there weekday warriors,

Join me in pouring one out for everyone who panic-sold yesterday.

Enjoy the next 4 minutes and 14 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.

Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,

+ US stocks’ “sell-off intensified in a major way Monday as concerns mounted over the health of the US economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 1,000 points. The Nasdaq Composite was crushed by more than 3.4%. The S&P 500's losses cascaded nearly 3% in its worst day since 2022, capping its worst start to any month since 2002.” (Yahoo! Finance)

+ The 10-year Treasury yield “fell on Monday as investors’ concerns on the economic outlook rise amid a global stock market-selloff.” (CNBC)

+ Oil “fell in volatile trade on Monday as a selloff continued on global stock markets, but the slide was limited by fears Iran's retaliation for the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran may lead to a wider war in the Middle East.” (Reuters)

+ Bitcoin “crashed as risk-off sentiment permeated global markets. Bitcoin (BTC) tumbled below $60,000 during the weekend, then nosedived to $49,300 during Monday's Asian morning as investors fled risk assets.“ (CoinDesk)

+ The three most talked about stocks on WallStreetBets in the past 24 hours were: 1) Nvidia -6.3% 2) C3.ai -2.2% 3) AMD +1.7%

The market moves you need to know about


+ There’s only one thing Palantir is better at than making terrorists wish they were never born
 and that’s crushing earnings. Not only did Palantir beat expectations, but it hiked guidance for the second time this year. Shares jumped 12.1% after hours.

– Tim Cook to Warren Buffett: “I’ll hit an old man in public.” Apple cratered 4.8% thanks partially to the global bloodbath
 and mostly because we found out that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway slashed its massive Apple stake by ~50% last quarter.

+ Mohammed bin Salman out her buying the f*cking dip. Lucid announced that Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund injected $1.5B into the EV maker yesterday, sending shares up 5.6% after hours.

Startup PromoTix ($48M in traction) is saving the events industry

PromoTix is solving the event industry’s challenges around high ticket fees and low attendance. Ticketmaster and competitors charge up to 40% of the ticket price to book, deterring guests who can’t afford the added cost. Combined with a crowded marketing space, events struggle.

PromoTix is raising funds to expand. Already profitable, with 656k users and $48M in sales in its first 30 months, PromoTix has low-fee and no-fee SaaS pricing, as well as patented marketing tools that drive attendance.

❔FAQ

Question: “Tyler, I love The Water Coolest. How can I support it?”

Answer: “Wow, great question! The best way to support The Water Coolest is by supporting our sponsors like PromoTix. Take a second to click the link above and check out what they’ve got to offer.”

FUD times

Source: Giphy

“Hello darkness, my old friend
” (yes, this is how I started yesterday’s newsletter too)

The last time something blew up this spectacularly in Japan was
 well, ya know


Yesterday was an absolute sh*tshow. Last week’s selloff in the US carried over into Asian trading (friendly reminder: their markets open before the US).

Japan, which recently raised rates (you read that right) f*cked around and found out. Its S&P 500 knockoff, the Nikkei, closed down 12% on Monday. That’s the worst day since the 1987 crash


Contagion

Nobody was safe, including the US.

All three major US indices had their worst day in nearly 2 years. Tech led the way (down), as the AI trade continues to unravel with no regard for human life. Nvidia fell more than 6%, bringing its losses over the past month to 20%.

Ok, but at least Bitcoin was a hed—

Go call your friend who YOLOed into sh*tcoins.

Bitcoin fell below $50k for the first time since early this year as investors got their risk-off on.

So, what now?

No, there isn’t going to be an emergency Fed meeting. Turns out, “bailing out retail investors’ Robinhood accounts” isn’t one of the Fed’s mandates. We’ll have to wait til the September FOMC meeting for that.

On the bright side, we might already be back. As of this writing (Monday ~9 PM EST), Asian markets were up bigly (+8%). And US futures were pointing towards a green open.

TS

+ Google CEO Sundar Pichai this morning: *watching big tech burn* “Well, at least it can’t get any worse
”

A Federal judge: “Guilty as charged.”

A judge just ruled that Google (-4.6%) created not one, but, two illegal monopolies. One in search and one in text advertising. The case revolves largely around Google’s deal with Android and Apple to be the preferred search engine on cell phones. You might recall that GOOGL pays billions of dollars annually to ensure DuckDuckGo and Ask Jeeves don’t come preloaded on your next iPhone.

According to the court, Google violated section 2 of the Sherman Antitrust Act. Of course, the only thing that actually matters is what it means for Google (if, the ruling survives the appeal process). It’ll likely be months or years before we find out what changes Google will need to make to appease Uncle Sam.

+ The Mars company won’t stop until every American catches diabeetus


The company best known for M&M’s has entered into talks to acquire Kellanova (+16.2%). If Kellanova sounds vaguely familiar, that’s because it’s the red-headed step-child of Kellogg’s that houses the brand’s snack foods. Kellogg’s spun Kellanova off into its own publicly traded company less than a year ago.

But it’s easy to see why Mars (and reportedly Hershey) are interested in Kellanova. The portfolio is a murderers row of snack brands: Cheez-It, Pop-Tarts, Eggo, Pringles, and Rice Krispies Treats. You know, the stuff that defined a snack pantry in the late 2000s.

+ On the bright side, the brokerages probably saved some of you from yourselves


Schwab, Fidelity, Vanguard, and others reported outages early Monday as the market got absolutely clobbered. This might come as a shock, but trading was unavailable at Robinhood as well.

In fact, Robinhood kept the party going, indicating that its 24-hour trading platform would be shuttered Monday night.

Why? *Puts on tinfoil hat* “Technical” issues, of course


Oh, and


+ Everyone is talking about the Sahm recession indicator. Here’s what you need to know. Claudia Sahm is more popular than the Hawk Tuah girl right now. Change my mind.

đŸ”„ Denny’s $18 breakfast platter — up from $5.99 — gives customers sticker shock: ‘Unreal!’. Or, and hear me out, is it just a miracle they kept the price this low for this long?

FYI, TWC might be compensated if you click on the links above. So, what are you waiting for? Start clicking.

FWD

âȘ Yesterday, Tyson reported before the bell. And CSX, Palantir, Realty Income, Lucid, Hims, Vimeo, and Chegg reported after hours.

 

⏩ Today we’re keeping an eye on


+ CAT, Uber, Molson Coors, Celsius, and FuboTV report before the open

+ Amgen, Airbnb, Fortinet, Supermicro, Rivian, Toast, Redfin, and The RealReal drop their quarterly reports after the close

+ Everyone’s buttholes remain tight after Monday’s bloodbath

EXIT

Yesterday, I asked, “What's the GOATed breakfast chain restaurant?”

  1. Waffle House, followed by a huge gap, then


  2. IHOP

  3. Cracker Barrel

Here’s what you guys had to say


  • Waffle House: "Come for the waffles, stay for the fights"

  • Waffle House: "Anthony Bourdain called it honest food. And he is right. The rest of this list serves trash from the garbage can."

  • IHOP: "Wanna-be seekers of “cool” will say Waffle House due to better brand cache, but old-school IHOP easily wins in the real world based on breakfast quality/quantity and (kinda sticky) atmosphere."

  • Denny's: "Tyler, I cannot tell you how many pre-drunk driving meals I had at a Denny's in Waikiki when I was a young enlisted Marine in Hawaii, circa 2000." Thank you for your service.

  • Write-in: "Dude, it's called Black Bear Diner. If you're ever on a West Coast swing, you gotta check it out. Literally the best chain restaurant ever. IHOP is inedible. Bob Evans was legit in the 90s. Denny's? It's actually depressing. Cracker Barrel requires an AARP membership to taste the food."

  • Write-in: "For us Midwest folks, Perkins takes a close second."

Here’s today’s question


Rumors are swirling about a Kellanova acquisition, so


If you had to keep one Kellanova product and kill all the others, what would it be?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

+ This is even more perfect after yesterday


Oh, and one more thing


What did you think about today's newsletter?

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FINE

Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from?

No, it’s the face of an individual who is financially irresponsible/dumb enough to be talked into spending money on a family photo shoot that he could have just done with his iPhone. So, act accordingly...

This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional.