💩 Here we go again

And Constellation continues to dance on Bud Light's grave...

Author

Tyler Morin
September 04, 2024

In partnership with

Let me let you in on a little secret. You can boost your portfolio with rare spirits like whiskey. It's a proven hedge against stock market dips. Click the logo above to learn more.

Hey there weekday warriors,

There are only two things that are certain in life: death and ISM manufacturing data sending markets into a death spiral.

Enjoy the next 4 minutes and 23 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.

Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,

PS, want to get your company in front of more than 100k rich, good-looking, and intelligent newsletter subscribers for Q4? We’re booking ads for October, November, and December right now. Reach out via this form and I’ll be in touch.

Markets

+ US stocks “tumbled Tuesday as technology names struggled and new economic data rekindled fears around the health of the economy.” (CNBC)

+ The 10-year Treasury yield “slid Tuesday as markets reopened after the Labor Day holiday and investors evaluated economic data.” (CNBC)

+ Oil “settled nearly 5% down on Tuesday at their lowest levels in nearly nine months on signs of a deal to resolve a dispute that has halted Libyan crude production and exports.” (Reuters)

+ Bitcoin “dips to $57,000 level and crypto stocks tumble to begin September trading.” (CNBC)

+ The three most talked about stocks on WallStreetBets in the past 24 hours were: 1) Nvidia -9.5% 2) Visa +0.7% 3) Intel -8.8%

The market moves you need to know about


– Tuesday was a bloodbath for chip stocks. Don’t believe me? The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (down 7.5%) had its worst day since March 2020. Perhaps you recall what happened in March ‘20? Nvidia led the way, falling 9.5% on the day.

Of course, NVDA is still up ~120% this year alone. Oh, and last week it reported a big earnings beat and expects 80% sales growth in the current quarter


Nvidia: Do you hate it or love it over the next 12 months? Vote below (I’ll share the results tomorrow)


đŸ» Hate it // 🐂 Love it 

(BTW, you can find the results of yesterday’s poll in the EXIT INTERVIEW section)

+ GitLab just smashed earnings. Shares of the “DevSecOps” company jumped 16.1% after reporting easy beats on the top and bottom lines and raising its full-year outlook.

– e.l.f. Beauty got buried on Tuesday. Shares fell 6.3% after Nielsen indicated it saw a steep dropoff in year-over-year sales data for the last 4 weeks.

What’s the opposite of whiskey d*ck?

The Rising Demand for Whiskey: A Smart Investor’s Choice

Why are 250,000 Vinovest customers investing in whiskey?

In a word - consumption.

Global alcohol consumption is on the rise, with projections hitting new peaks by 2028. Whiskey, in particular, is experiencing significant growth, with the number of US craft distilleries quadrupling in the past decade. Younger generations are moving from beer to cocktails, boosting whiskey's popularity.

That’s not all.

Whiskey's tangible nature, market resilience, and Vinovest’s strategic approach make whiskey a smart addition to any diversified portfolio.

Ah sh*t, here we go again


Source: Giphy

Today in ‘things I did not have on my 2024 BINGO card’: purchasing managers at ‘a cutting edge high-tech firm out of the Midwest awaiting imminent patent approval on the next generation of radar detectors’ sparking a market meltdown for the second month in a row


Per the Institute for Supply Management’s monthly survey, just 47.2% of purchasing managers reported expansion in August. That was below the consensus of 47.9%. Spoiler: that’s bad.

You might recall that it was the same survey last month that sent markets into a death spiral
 and had 14-year-olds with $600 in a Robinhood account calling for an emergency rate cut. The weak manufacturing data raised fears that the Fed had waited too long to move rates, and we were headed for a recession.

Apparently, we learned nothing because investors had the same knee-jerk reaction yesterday


Markets tumbled on the day. The S&P 500 was down more than 2% and the Nasdaq cratered 3%.

It probably didn’t help that we also got some piss-poor manufacturing data from S&P. Oh, and Nvidia sold off bigly, dragging the entire market down with it.

So you’re telling me there’s a chance?!

On the bright side, the concerning data could apply more pressure on the Central Bank to consider a big, thick, veiny rate cut (think: 0.5%) come September 18th. But, I wouldn't count on it


TS

+ Constellation Brands continues to dance on Bud Light’s grave


Not only does Constellation (+2.5%) make the #1 beer in America (Modelo), but even when it f*cks up, it manages to fail upwards.

Case in point: yesterday the beer, wine, and spirits maker said it plans to write down its struggling wine portfolio by $2.5B AND trim its annual net sales forecast. Still, shares rose 2.5% on the day


Wine sales have been declining across the board, negatively impacting Constellation’s brands like Robert Mondavi. Not to mention, macro challenges, like unemployment, have slowed alcohol sales in general. Imagine not turning to alcohol to drown your sorrows


+ You guys remember that girl who went viral for doing a TikTok dance while simultaneously crying? Yeah, that’s kinda how Intel’s chip launch “party” felt yesterday


While his entire world collapses around him, Intel (-8.8%) SVP and GM Jim Johnson managed to channel his inner Steve Jobs to announce the company’s newest CPUs (friendly reminder: those are the kind for laptops, not AI).

The company claims its Ultra 200V series will use up to 50% less power than its predecessor and is 20% more powerful than Qualcomm’s Snapdragon chip.

To be fair, Intel probably could have said it was 6,900% better and investors wouldn’t have given a f*ck. Shares were down big on the day. And just in case things weren’t bad enough
 all signs point towards Intel losing its spot in the Dow


Oh, and


+ Estimated $35 billion expected to be bet on NFL this season. Those are rookie numbers in this racket.

+ It might be time to put your savings into a high-yield account before it’s too late. Friendly reminder: the smart money expects a rate cut in September


FYI, TWC might be compensated if you click on the links above. So, what are you waiting for? Start clicking.

FWD

âȘ Yesterday, Zscaler, GitLab, and Asana reported after the bell. Plus, we got a bunch of manufacturing data that brought the market to its knees.

⏩ Today we’re keeping an eye on


+ Hormel Foods, Dollar Tree, and Dick's report ahead of the open

+ Casey's General Store, C3.ai, and ChargePoint drop earnings after the bell

+ Citi's TMT Conference gets underway. We'll hear from Microsoft, Super Micro Computer, Dell, Intel, and others.

EXIT

Yesterday, I asked, “When does it get weird to go to an amusement park (without kids)?”

Ugh. I hate all you guys who are so positive all the time...

"You're never too old" won with 32.5% of the vote.

'Once you graduate high school' and 'After your 20s' rounded out the top 3.

Here’s what some of you guys had to say (and my thoughts in italics)


  • High school: "After high school, if you go to an amusement park without kids, you just look like a pedo."

  • College: "Go do drugs or get blackout drunk, like God intended." Do they serve booze at amusement parks?

  • College: "I worked at an amusement park during college. After my last day, I would never think of going there and spending that kind of money without a dependent squeezing my wallet for $15 chicken nuggets and a sh*tty watered-down fruit juice in a “Souvenir” cup that melts in the dishwasher." This is so descriptive. And sad.

  • After your 20s: "Hi, I'm Chris Hansen..."

  • After your 30s: "Is it weird if I still play Roller Coaster Tycoon in my 30s?
 asking for a friend." One of the greatest OG PC games of all time. Up there with Oregon Trail and Type to Learn.

🐂 The results are in from yesterday’s Hate it or Love it


59.3% of you Love Alibaba over the next 12 months.

Here’s today’s question


You can only drink one Constellation Brands' brands for the rest of your life. Which is it?

Oh, yeah, and it's the only alcohol left on earth.

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

Oh, and one more thing


What did you think about today's newsletter?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

FINE

Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from?

No, it’s the face of an individual who is financially irresponsible/dumb enough to be talked into spending money on a family photo shoot that he could have just done with his iPhone. So, act accordingly...

This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional.