💦 GoodbyeFresh

And February jobs report

Babbel

Hey there weekday warriors,

Good news… after selling more than $100M worth of gold bars, Costco is diversifying. Now, you can buy silver on its website.

You know what you can’t buy? Bitcoin…

Here’s what else we’re getting into today…

  • Say goodbye to Hello Fresh

  • February jobs data

  • Wegovy’s got a new trick

Enjoy the next 4 minutes and 3 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.

Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,

Markets

+ US stocks “retreated on Friday, closing out a turbulent week as Nvidia’s incredible run took a breather.” (CNBC)

+ The 10-year Treasury yield “was near flat on Friday after the February jobs report showed solid employment growth but also an increase in the unemployment rate." (CNBC)

+ Oil prices “closed 1% lower on Friday and fell even more for the week as markets remained wary of soft Chinese demand even as producer group OPEC+ extended supply cuts.” (Reuters)

+ Bitcoin flirted with its ATH for most of the weekend…

+ The three most talked about stocks on WallStreetBets in the past 24 hours were: 1) Nvidia -5.5% 2) C3.ai -0.2% 3) TSMC -1.9%

The market moves you need to know about…

+ Macy’s jumped 3.9% on Friday. Spoiler: it wasn’t because brick-and-mortar retail suddenly became sexy. Rumor has it that the department store has begun negotiating directly with the two hedge funds interested in taking it private. Oh, and it sounds like they’re willing to increase their offer…

+ Carvana rose 7.3% after RBC threw in the towel. The bank admitted defeat and said it’s run out of reasons to be bearish on the company that blessed the human race with the car vending machine.

Talk shop... in a different language

Babbel image

Start chatting with global clients and colleagues... in their language.

By summer.

The Babbel app teaches real conversations for the real world. With live classes, podcasts, games, and more, you can start speaking a new language in 3 weeks.

This is a sponsored post. The best way to support The Water Coolest is by showing our ad partners some love (think: clicking, taking a look around, etc.).

Goodnight, sweet prince

(Source: Giphy)

It appears that offering deep discounts on an already low-margin product that was only ever popular because of a global pandemic is a recipe for disaster…

There are only two reasons publicly traded companies drop their earnings reports early: 1) they are Cava, and they inexplicably allow their earnings to leak 2) they are trying to get out in front of an absolutely dogsh*t quarter…

HelloFresh doesn’t drop earnings until Friday, but it wanted to make sure everyone set expectations low. It warned that its 2023 EBITDA would come in at ~448M euros, which is a move in the wrong direction compared to 2022’s 470M euros.

Ok, but surely HelloFresh will stop the bleeding in 2024… right? Right?!

Not exactly. The meal delivery kit company that put the entire podcast ecosystem on its back along with Blue Apron in the 2010s shared some abysmal guidance. It appears they just decided to pull the Band-Aid.

EBITDA for this year is expected to drop even further, to between 350M and 400M euros. That’s even more concerning considering the company said it expects sales to grow in 2024.

Why tho?

You’re not going to believe this, but the company that will give you 16 free meals in exchange for a valid email address said its marketing costs will eat into earnings.

Tyler’s take… This should come as a shock to literally no one. HelloFresh might be the only company hoping for another pandemic more than Zoom. Shares were trading at ~$90 in late 2021. On Friday, the stock was changing hands for less than $7.

STB

+ Hiring managers ‘spend 25 times longer on your LinkedIn’ than your resume, says ex-Amazon recruiter—how to impress them (Read)

+ Average Gen Z understands less than 50 percent of the tax filling process (Read)

~ ICYMI... Mark Cuban looks for 2 qualities in employees: ‘If they fail on either one, you’re going to be in trouble’ (Read)

You can secure the bag for your favorite charity by referring someone to The Water Coolest. For every referral, TWC will donate $1 to charity, PLUS you’ll get prizes like koozies and stickers.

Share your unique referral link via email, social media, on the dark web, etc.

You currently have 0 referrals, only 1 away from receiving The Zuck Short Report (+$1 donation).

TS

+ Look what you did you little jerk…

How do you sleep at night, health care hiring managers? Creating 67k new jobs in February just put a hurting on my 4-figure brokerage account…

Friday’s job report came in hotter than expected, led by (you guessed it) a spike in healthcare jobs. Non-farm payrolls topped 275k, well above the Street’s consensus of 198k.

But it wasn’t all bad news. The unemployment rate topped expectations at 3.9%. Economists were predicting 3.7%.

Oh, and in case you ever wondered, “is this data all just kinda bullsh*t anyway?”… the answer is probably “yes.”

You see, January’s initial +353k jobs number was revised down to 229k. And December’s +333k jobs were more like 290k. So, by my estimation, February’s number is going to end up being ~200k…

As an added bonus, one of the most closely watched inflation indicators looked good. Wages rose just 0.1% month over month, which was below estimates. The year-over-year figure (4.3%) also came in lower than consensus.

Tyler’s take… A bit of a head-scratcher of a jobs report. Markets didn’t like it a whole lot, but if recent months have been any indication, February’s job growth will actually be a whole lot lower. If that’s the case, you’re actually looking at some pretty positive data (purely from a stonk investor’s perspective).

+ Fat-shaming is no longer Wegovy’s only marketing angle…

On Friday, the FDA approved a label change for Wegovy that will allow Novo Nordisk to tout its ability to reduce the risk of heart attack, stroke, and heart-related deaths. And listen, I’m no doctor (but I did smoke pot with Johnny Hopkins and Sloane Kettering), but losing weight and improving heart health checks out.

But there’s a much bigger motive for Novo to push this through than eradicating heart disease. Insurers have balked at high-priced weight loss drugs and in some cases have halted coverage. And Medicare doesn’t cover any drug that only assists with weight loss.

The heart health approval could open up the floodgates (even more).

+ In the least surprising news of the day, Sam Altman has rejoined OpenAI’s board, and all is right in the world. An independent investigation found that Sam’s conduct didn’t mandate removal back in the Fall. You almost feel bad for the poor b*stards who tried to oust Sam…

FWD

Here's what I'm keeping an eye on today...

+ Oracle, Casey's General Stores, and Asana report. And how has no one created a redneck ETF (ticker: NECK) that includes Casey’s, Tractor Supply, and Cracker Barrel?

+ Sports gambling goes live in North Carolina, you degens

EXIT

Yesterday I asked “Are you tuning in to the Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson fight on Netflix?”

62.1% of you said “hell yes” or “if there’s nothing else on” (which I’ll consider a yes).

Here’s today’s question…

Listen, I like to shame Gen Z as much as the next millennial, but this study that’s trying to paint Gen Z as morons because they understand less than 50% of the tax filing process is kinda bullsh*t. Mostly because I understand wayyy less than 50%. So…

Is doing taxes the worst part of being an adult?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

Oh, and two more things…

Did you check out today’s sponsor, Babbel?

What did you think about today's newsletter?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

Want to advertise in The Water Coolest? Fill out this form and I’ll be in touch.

Looking to work with the best newsletter consultant in the game? Let’s talk.

FINE

Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from?

No, it’s the face of an individual who is financially irresponsible/dumb enough to be talked into spending money on a family photo shoot that he could have just done with his iPhone. So, act accordingly...

This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional