💦 Higher for longer?

And big pharma gets bigger

Hey there weekday warriors,

Planning to lose a few lbs in 2024? Or perhaps get your money right? That’s cute. Kim Jong Un’s New Year’s resolution is to launch three new spy satellites, produce more nukes, and build attack drones.

Here’s what we’re getting into today…

  • Stocks went hard in 2023

  • Bigger pharma

  • Judge denies us another SBF trial

Enjoy the next 4 minutes and 10 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.

Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,

MARKETS

+ US stocks “were lower after the close on Friday, as losses in the Basic Materials, Consumer Services, and Financials sectors led shares lower.” (Investing.com)

+ The 10-year Treasury yield “was little changed on Friday as investor attention focused on the path ahead for the economy and monetary policy, and traders wrapped up a significant year for bonds." (CNBC)

+ Oil “lost over 10% in 2023 in a tumultuous year of trading marked by geopolitical turmoil and concerns about the oil output levels of major producers around the world.” (Reuters)

+ Bitcoin is “trading above $45,000 for the first time in nearly two years as the market gears up for the potential approval of the first spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States.” (Cointelegraph)

+ The three most talked about stocks on WallStreetBets in the past 24 hours were: 1) Nvidia UNCH 2) Tesla -1.86% 3) AMD -0.91%.

Higher for longer?

(Source: Giphy)

There are a lot of things I hope we’ll leave behind in 2023. Like “inverse Cramer.” And using the term “Magnificent 7.” Oh, and saying BlackRock owns everything.

But there are a few things I hope we’ll take into 2024. Like markets putting shorts in a body bag.

Despite inflation and “higher for longer,” investors had a fever and the only prescription was more stonks. The S&P 500 rose 24% on the year. Meanwhile, the Dow was up 13% on the year. And the Nasdaq climbed 43% in 2024.

The S&P 500 posted a 9-week win streak to end the year and came this close to hitting an all-time high.

Speaking of records… the Dow hit a record high last Thursday. And the Nasdaq had its best year since 2020.

Why?

The Fed pausing rate hikes and giving us a dot plot with (at least) three interest rate cuts had investors more horned up than the internet was for that edible Pop-Tart’s mascot.

Of course, we probably have Sam Altman to thank, too. The AI race has fueled 2000’s level growth in tech.

So, what’s next?

There’s only one person who knows the answer to that… our Lord and Savior, Jerome Powell.

Of course, pretty much everyone on the Street has a guess. Like JPMorgan, which offered up one of the most bearish outlooks for 2024. Jamie Dimon and Co. have an S&P 500 target of just 4,200. JPM cited high equity valuations and “geopolitical risks.”

BMO, on the other hand, is not about that Buzz Killington life. It’s got one of the highest S&P targets on the street at 5,100. The reason? A soft landing, obviously…

Who wants to be a trillionaire?

Mark Cuban said wayyy back in 2017 that "The world’s first trillionaires are going to come from somebody who masters AI."

And he's probably not wrong. The AI market is projected to create a mind-boggling US$1.5T in market value by 2030.

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STB

+ Avoid telling your boss ‘I don’t know,’ says career coach—here’s what to do instead (Read)

+ The great Rolex recession is here: How the Fed crushed the luxury-watch boom (Read)

+ ICYMI... A ‘significant objection’ to 529 college savings plans will go away Jan. 1. ‘This is a big deal,’ expert says (Read)

TS

+ A tradition unlike any other…

Every January, big pharma jacks up prices… because f*ck your grandma and her health issues. Many of the price increases will be just shy of 10%. You see, limiting price increases to 10% became an industry “best practice” after the industry caught some heat for outrageous hikes in the early 2000’s.

The prices of more than 500 drugs will increase. And once again Pfizer will take the crown for increasing the MSRP of the most drugs (124)… and somewhere Martin Shkreli is smiling… (Read)

+ I’d like to report a crime. We’ve been robbed of the opportunity to bear witness to another SBF trial.

According to the presiding judge, most of the evidence that would be presented had already been submitted for the first trial. Read: no new Margaritaville fueled gang bang stories we haven’t heard yet…

It shouldn’t impact his prison time, though. The judge can take the additional charges into account when deciding his fate, which seems kinda unconstitutional, but who am I to judge? As a reminder, SBF faces up to 100 years in prison when he’s sentenced on March 28th. (Read)

+ Nvidia just dropped the Wish.com version of its powerful GeForce RTX 4090 chip

The GeForce RTX 4090 D is what would happen if you had a state school engineer design the GeForce RTX 4090. The D is only available in China. That’s because the US is cracking down on chip manufacturers in the land of the free and the home of the brave that have been shipping advanced semiconductors to our enemies (looking at you China and Iran).

To get around the sanctions, Nvidia “designed” a “new chip” that’s totally not just the same one with a different name. Shares of NVDA closed flat on the day. (Read)

+ The PGA and LIV Tours are working to extend the deadline for their proposed merger… which is good news considering December 31 was the original cutoff (ok, maybe not the best choice of word considering Saudi Arabia’s history…)

It makes sense considering the deal recently got more complicated. The PGA-LIV merger is still on the table, but the Fenway Sports Group is hoping to finance the deal. Spoiler: the move to include the group that owns the Red Sox could appease US lawmakers. (Read)

+ Hills I will die on: firmly believing that killing the XFL (again) will go down as one of the most boneheaded business decisions of the 21st century…

The recently merged XFL and USFL will rebrand as the United Football League ahead of kickoff on March 30th… and I need to know who signed off on this. It’s still not totally clear which teams will come over from each league... but if I said the names, would you know them anyway? (Read)

FWD

Here's what I'm keeping an eye on today...

+ Tesla will report delivery numbers

EXIT

Yesterday, I asked What’s one resolution that you actually followed through with?

Shoutout to everyone who followed through with a resolution. I have never managed to come even remotely close to doing so.

The most impressive by far was the guy who tried 100 new recipes in 2023.

Here’s today’s question…

Will the S&P 500 close above or below 4,800 on December 31, 2024? (extra points for rationale)

Reply directly to this email with your thoughts. I’ll share the results tomorrow.

Oh, and two more things…

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FINE

Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from?

TYLER

No, it’s the face of a God-fearing family man with sh*t-for-brains. So, act accordingly...

This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional.