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Hey there weekday warriors,

Not gonna lie, Q4 really snuck up on me. Let’s look back at the quarter that was (and ahead to Q4).

Enjoy the next 4 minutes and 44 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.

Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,

– tyler

+ US stocks “hit fresh records to cap strong September, quarter.” (Yahoo! Finance)

+ The 10-year Treasury yield “advanced Monday as investors considered the state of the economy after the latest data release and commentary from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell.” (CNBC)

+ Oil was “little changed on Monday, but posted a 17% loss for the third quarter as fears that a widening conflict in the Middle East could curtail crude supply were overshadowed by waning global demand concerns.” (Reuters)

+ Bitcoin fell on the day. Analysts pointed to “technical overbought conditions in the market.” (Investing)

+ The three most talked about stocks on WallStreetBets in the past 24 hours were: 1) Nvidia +0.03% 2) Nio +2.5% 3) Rocket Lab +0.2%

The market moves you need to know about…

– Imagine someone telling you this in 2021: “Carnival Cruise Line’s shares are going to fall after the company beat on the top and bottom line and hiked its guidance… because the Street’s expectations were sky-high.” After dropping early in the session, shares recovered but still closed down 0.3%.

– The maker of Jeep, Dodge, Chrysler, and others (Stellantis) just got its vehicular manslaughter on. Shares crashed 12.5% after the carmaker slashed its guidance for the year in a big way. It pointed to industry headwinds, which dragged on other automakers.

Life comes at you fast...

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I live my life a fiscal quarter at a time

Boy, I bet the “sEPtEMbER iS A bRUtAL MoNTh FOr STOcKs” crowd feels stupid now…

The month that has historically been the 2024 Chicago White Sox of stock market performance ended on a high note yesterday. All three major US indices eked out gainz on the day, despite J-Poww’s best efforts (more on that below).

On the final day of the month and the quarter, the Dow and S&P 500 reached new all-time highs. Sucks to suck, Nasdaq.

Quarterly review…

The S&P 500 notched its best year-to-date performance through September since 1997. To put things in perspective, in 1997 Rose told Jack to “draw me like one of your French girls” (*10-year-old Tyler core memory unlocked*).

For the quarter, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq added 8.2%, 5.4%, and 3%, respectively. Not bad for a 3-month period that included Black Monday (2024’s version). You might recall that Japan’s Nikkei fell more than 12% and the S&P 500 lost 3% (and more than 6% over a 3-day period) on August 5th.

The scare was triggered by a series of brutal economic reports that pointed towards the Fed being late to the rate cut party (… which would surely usher in the collapse of civilization). Of course, the rumors of our demise turned out to be greatly exaggerated.

And earlier this month J-Poww gave us the big, thick, throbbing rate cut we had all been yearning for. Markets went on a tear, gaining for 3 consecutive weeks, and all was right in the world.

What’s next?

Well, probably a whole lot more attention being paid to jobs reports and other economic data. Starting with Friday’s September payroll data.

And we can expect much less focus on inflation, which is likely to be a nothingburger from here on out. You might recall that Friday’s PCE data showed inflation is actually coming down quicker than expected and closing in on the Fed’s target (2%).

The big question in Q4 won’t be if the Fed will cut, but how much it will cut. The two most likely outcomes are 50 basis points (25 in November and 25 in December) or 75 basis points (25 in November and 50 in December).

Your move, Jerome…

+ It probably shouldn’t come as much of a shock that Deadhead Jerome Powell is opting for a long strange rate cutting trip. During a speech on Monday Jay said “This is not a committee that feels like it’s in a hurry to cut rates quickly.”

Translation? “Don’t expect another 50 basis point rate cut, you f*cking mouth breathers.”

Jerry Interest Rates stuck to the script (or, in this case, the dot plot): “If the economy performs as expected, that would mean two more rate cuts this year, a total of 50 [basis points] more.”

In case you were wondering, the futures markets are currently pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut in November, and another girthy cut (50 bips) in December. Spoiler: the markets think J-Poww is bluffing.

+ “$1, Bob!” - DirecTV

More than a decade after its first attempt to takeover Dish Network (EchoStar -11.4%), DirecTV has, at long last, succeeded in acquiring its biggest competitor. Congrats… I guess?

The price this time around is hard to beat. DirecTV paid just $1. Of course, it’s inheriting a Johnny Sins-sized debt load ($9.5B, with $2B coming due in November).

To put things in perspective, the first time these companies talked about merging DirecTV had a market cap of $40B and Dish was worth $28B.

Combined, the two have lost more than 60% of their subscribers since 2016.

Where’d they go wrong?

Well, even poor people can afford streaming in the year of our lord 2024. And it turns out the shame associated with slapping a satellite on your roof became too much to bear for many…

But wait, there’s more!

Oh, and in a deal also announced Monday, PE firm TPG agreed to buy the 70% of DirecTV that it doesn’t own from AT&T for $7.6B. If my math is correct, that makes AT&T the biggest loser here. They paid $48.5B for DirecTV 10 years ago. Woof.

+ Calling Cerebras a competitor to Nvidia, is like calling Bing a competitor to Google…

Cerebras Systems is opportunistic if nothing else. The AI chipmaker just filed to go public, because, well… Nvidia. In 2021 the company was valued at $4B. It’s safe to assume it will IPO at a much, much higher valuation.

In the first six months of 2024 Cerebras did $136M in sales (for the record, that’s nearly double the 2023’s full-year top line figure) and managed to lose $66.6M. You gotta pump those numbers up, those are rookie numbers in this racket.

+ If only CVS had switched to paperless receipts…

CVS Health (+2.4%) is reportedly conducting a “strategic review.” Spoiler: lots of people are about to get fired.

It’s facing pressure from an activist hedge fund after underperforming this year (it’s down 22% YTD) after failing to realize all those synergies it promised after buying Aetna.

+ Self-made millionaire’s advice to help a couple rein in their spending after racking up $65,000 in credit card debt: ‘It’s not about whack-a-mole’. Step #1: stop buying avocado toast.

+ Here’s how much the ‘American dream’ costs. Anddd it appears that I will never live the American dream.

🔥 People who are good at small talk do these 3 things and ‘reap the rewards.’

FYI, TWC might be compensated if you click on the links above. So, what are you waiting for? Start clicking.

⏪ Yesterday, Carnival Cruise Lines reported and J-Poww spoke at a conference.

⏩ Today we’re keeping an eye on…

+ Nike reports after the close

+ Quarterly automaker delivery/sales numbers will start rolling in (yes, that means Tesla)

+ The International Longshoremen's Association union went on strike at ports up and down the East Coast early this morning after failing to ink a new contract

Yesterday, I asked, “If you went back 10 years with all your current knowledge/memories, how much more wealthy do you think you would be today (think: you had 10 years to make choices and decisions to make $$$)?”

21.6% of you think you could add between $1M and $5M to your net worth. 19.1% of you think you could add between $5M and $25M. Unsurprisingly, far too many of you (3.3%) think you could make an extra $1B+.

Here’s what some of you guys had to say (and my thoughts in italics)…

• $100k-$500k: "I used to play a fun game when I had a bad day at work, I had in 2018 Mongodb at $37 per share (78 shares), and sold it thinking I missed at around 78 a share. It eventually got up around 569-570ish per share. I would do the math of "how much money did I miss out on by being an a**hole?" Nothing like making a bad day worse!"

• $100k-$500k: "sadly, even if I put every cent I had into Nvidia, I did not have enough ten years ago to have accrued f*ck you money"

• $1B+: "Bro... I'm a walking Gray's Sports Almanac."

• $500M-$1B: "10 years ago I was 15 years old. No, I did not have a ton of money but I was working and did have mutual access to a bookie. I have no question I would be able to make 500m+ just off of sports alone. Mattress mack look out!"

And here’s today’s questions…

Here are some of the ground rules for this one…

• No hard drugs allowed. Only stuff you can get over the counter (i.e. energy drinks, caffeine pills)

• You can stop at any time, but never get to start it again

Bonus question today…

+ ICYMI: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon went OFF on private equity poaching his bankers

🔥 This one is for the parents out there…

Oh, and one more thing…

Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from?

No, it’s the face of an individual who is financially irresponsible/dumb enough to be talked into spending money on a family photo shoot that he could have just done with his iPhone. So, act accordingly...

This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional.