Hey there weekday warrior,

Take a break from refreshing your brokerage app and spend a few minutes completing the TWC Q2 2025 survey. Your feedback will help me make TWC even better and ensure it’s around for your grandkids. Take the survey now ➡️

Enjoy the next 4 minutes and 21 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.

Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,

– tyler

I remember my first trade war

“Oh, sh*t.” - RH’s CEO watching his stock (and personal net worth) tank 40% during the luxury furniture maker’s earnings call Wednesday night after POTUS announced reciprocal tariffs literally everyone yesterday

Tiger King said it best: “I am never going to financially recover from this.” The last time we saw this kinda bloodbath, celebs were singing ‘Imagine’ and Peloton was a blue-chip. US stonks just had their worst day since March 2020.

The Dow fell 4%, the S&P 500 lost 4.8%, and the Nasdaq plummeted 6%, giving everyone a taste of what it felt like to have been an investor in Hawk Tuah coin.

Big tech led the way (see: Nasdaq down 6%). The selloff wiped out $1T in market cap from the Mag 7 alone. Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 3.57% ) , Meta $META ( ▲ 0.33% ) , and Amazon $AMZN ( ▼ 0.79% ) all fell more than 9%.

Stocks weren’t the only asset that got rekt. Literally, no one was safe. The dollar fell by more than 1%, Bitcoin flirted with $80k, and oil fell by more than 6%. For f*ck’s sake, even that gold you bought at Costco is worth less than it was yesterday (which is why I diversified into in double chunk chocolate chip cookies).

But have no fear. DJT says it’s merely a flesh wound. At the White House, the Commander in Chief said, “The markets are going to boom, the stock is going to boom, the country is going to boom.”

I remember my first trade war

In case you’ve been living under a rock (which was presumably manufactured in China and subject to 54% tariffs), Donny Duties signed the Declaration of Economic Independence on Wednesday.

The executive order imposed 10% baseline tariffs on all products from every single country on God’s green Earth. Unless, of course, you’re shipping prescription drugs to the US (think: prescriptions are exempt for now)… because gas station b*ner pills aren’t going to MAHA (Make America Hard Again).

At least 180 countries got special treatment (read: higher than 10% import taxes). For example, the White House hiked China’s 20% tariffs to 54%… because f*ck em, that’s why.

“That’s my quant…”

Oh, and for everyone who called bullsh*t on the tariff math, the White House showed its work yesterday with a formula straight out of ‘A Beautiful Mind. ’

Thanks in advance 🤝

You: “Tyler, what are you thanking me for?”

Me: “Filling out the TWC Q1 ‘25 survey. It’ll help me make The Water Coolest better than all of those other sorry a** newsletters out there.”

So, what the hell are you waiting for? Go take the survey now.

It won’t take you more than a few minutes to complete (I will give extra time to anyone with a doctor’s note), but it is guaranteed to make your TWC experience at least 69% more enjoyable.

+ Episode 2 of the inevitable Deel/Rippling docuseries just wrote itself…

Keith O’Brien, an employee of Rippling, just confessed that he was paid $5k a month by the CEO of Deel to go full mole. Deel CEO Alex Bouaziz saw Keith as his own personal James Bond (seriously, apparently that’s how he pitched the idea) to perform corporate espionage on his behalf (think: stealing sales leads, internal comms, etc.). 

Keith “007” O’Brien took the cold hard cash and built out an espionage system using code words, encrypted Telegram channels, and self-destructing messages… and this sounds like the most fun anyone’s had in corporate America since [insert literally any of the CEOs who (consensually) clapped the cheeks of one of their subordinates].

This admission certainly helps build Rippling’s lawsuit. Friendly reminder… Deel stands accused of a slew of offenses: “racketeering, misappropriation of trade secrets, tortious interference, unfair competition, as well as aiding and abetting a breach of fiduciary duty.” And if my math is correct, Keith would commit crimes against humanity for like $27k…

+ Hershey $HSY ( ▼ 1.48% ) is thisss close to closing a deal with Orville Redenbacher’s less-evil twin LesserEvil. The popcorn and snack-maker with the fancy bags that your wife is always overpaying for is about to get acquired by the Willy Wonka of South East PA for about $750M. Should someone remind Hershey that they already own SkinnyPop before it’s too late?

+ A new report from short seller Bear Cave sent KinderCare Learning Companies $KLC ( ▼ 0.87% ) shares spiraling. Bear Cave (not to be confused with that nightclub your dad started hanging out at after he and your mom ‘grew apart’) alleged that KinderCare facilities have failed to provide a safe space for kids, including a case where an 11-month-old tested positive for cocaine after coming back from daycare. Which location was that again? Asking for a friend…

+ Intel $INTC ( ▼ 4.5% ) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing $TSM ( ▼ 0.67% ) are reportedly forming a joint venture that would allow TSM to operate Intel’s chip factories. Time to call in a professional.

+ US stocks “plummeted Thursday, sending the S&P 500 back into correction territory for its biggest one-day loss since 2020, after President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs, raising the risk of a global trade war that plunges the economy into a recession.” (CNBC)

+ The 10-year yield “fell sharply on Thursday after President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping “reciprocal tariffs, which raised concerns about the possibility of a global trade war and sparked a major flight to safety away from risk assets.” (CNBC)

+ Oil “prices swooned on Thursday to settle with their steepest percentage loss since 2022, after OPEC+ agreed to a surprise increase in output the day after U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping new import tariffs.” (Reuters)

⏪ Yesterday…

+ ExxonMobil dropped earnings after the bell

+ The US started collecting tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts

⏩ Today we’re keeping an eye on…

+ Warner Bros.' Minecraft movie premieres

+ The March US jobs report drops

+ J-Poww speaks at the SABEW conference in Arlington, Virginia

Yesterday, I asked, “You had to choose one when you were a kid, and it pretty much dictated the rest of your life. Which was it?”

39.2% of you were on Team Nintendo.

Here’s what some of you guys had to say…

• Team Nintendo: “The goal was to link up with a friend who had a PlayStation though so you’d have the best of both worlds. ”

• Team Xbox: “As I was also interested in getting laid”

• Team Playstation: “friends had nintendo for the mulitplayer GOATs, playstation was great solo. xbox controllers were too big (small hands = small....controllers)”

• Team Nintendo: “It was much easier to convince my mom to let me play mario than GTA”

• Team Xbox: “My kids didn’t have a choice Xbox came free with a tv I bought at future shop, yes I’m old”

• Team Playstation: “I bought consoles how all reasonable people did: Playstation 2, Xbox 360, Playstation 4, Playstation 5”

And here’s today’s question…

Oh, and one more thing…

Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from?

No, it’s the face of an individual who is financially irresponsible/dumb enough to be talked into spending money on a family photo shoot that he could have just done with his iPhone. So, act accordingly...

This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional.