💦 Netflix has no chill

NFLX just put the competition on notice

Hey there weekday warriors,

I’ve got some bad news for all the readers in New Zealand and the Philippines. Twitter, er, X, is going to a pay-to-play model. Residents of those nations will be guinea pigs for a new program called Not A Bot. New users will have to pay $1 per year to be part of the cesspool of sh*tposts we call X.

Here’s what’s on the agenda for today...

  • Netflix crushes earnings

  • Tesla drops the ball

  • The 10-year Treasury yield moons

Enjoy the next few 4 minutes and 3 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.

Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,

-- tyler

PS, in case you missed it… after nearly two years at Barstool, The Water Coolest has gone independent (again). And I'm in the driver's seat.

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2. That's it.

MARKETS

+ US stocks "closed lower Wednesday as Nvidia continued to weigh on tech for a second-straight day and rising Treasury yields continued to put the squeeze on stocks." (Investing.com)

+ The 10-year Treasury yield hit "a fresh multiyear high as investors digested the latest economic data and considered the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rates." (Reuters)

+ Oil "climbed about 2% to a two-week high on Wednesday on a bigger-than-expected U.S. storage draw and concerns about global supplies after Iran called for an oil embargo on Israel over the conflict in Gaza." (Reuters)

+ Bitcoin "continues to show strength this week by hitting an intra-day high at $28,516 even as macroeconomic headwinds in the United States continue to weigh on investor sentiment." (Cointelegraph)

+ The three most talked about stocks on WallStreetBets in the past 24-hours were: 1) Tesla -4.78% 2) Nvidia -3.96% 3) Visa -1.53%.

Netflix has no chill

IMAGE1

Reed Hastings has something to say to all the haters... (Source: Giphy)

It appears that the rumors of Netflix's demise have been greatly exaggerated. Despite rumblings that its ad-supported tier is a dumpster fire and fears that growth has gone the way of CNN+, Netflix has only become more powerful...

Literally, the only blemish on a damn near perfect earnings report was a slight miss on the top line. For the record, earnings per share came in above consensus.

But it was the thicc subscriber growth numbers that had investors bricked up. Netflix added 8.8M subscribers, absolutely bodying the "lofty" expectations of 6.2M. Those are early days of rona boi type numbers, you guys. For context, in the same quarter last year, the company added just 2.6M subs.

And let's not forget that early last year butt hurt fin bros (see: yours truly) were calling for Netflix to be kicked out of FAANG (which, would have been a real problem, tbh...). The company Peacock hopes to be when it grows up lost 200k subs in Q1 '22... and another 1M in Q2.

Management's excuse? "sUbS WEre PuLLed ForWard bEcaUse PeoplE weRE StUCk at HomE dURinG COvID." Investors didn't buy it, and NFLX got rekt... falling more than 60% in the immediate aftermath of the collapse.

Putting the raise in beat and raise...

Netflix didn't just make Wall Street its b*tch. It's making all 200M+ of us its b*tch. The company said it's jacking up prices in the US, UK, and France. To be fair, it's only increasing the prices of the basic and premium plans. "Standard," which is inexplicably not the same as "basic" will remain at $15.49 in America. Oh, and the new-ish ad-supported tier won't change either. Presumably, because those peasants couldn't afford it.

And this, ladies and gentlemen, is how you increase average revenue per member literally overnight. Shares were up 12.5% on the day. And are now up more than 17% on the year.

Your move, Disney+...

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STB

+ Delta walks back some changes to airport lounge access, loyalty program after customer complaints (Read)

+ United Airlines will debut a new boarding order to save time (Read)

+ 6 Secrets That TV Shows Don’t Tell You About Flipping Houses (Read)

+ ICYMI yesterday... NFL Player Arik Armstead Gives A Line-By-Line Breakdown Of His Paycheck (Read)

TS

+ Things you hate to see: the guy that promised we'd have self-driving cars in 2016 being a Debbie Downer...

Tesla dropped earnings yesterday, and the report was of the "not great, Bob" variety. The OG EV maker missed on the top and bottom lines. And total operating margins imploded from 17.2% a year ago to just 7.6%. But investors didn't actually seem all that bothered. Shares rose after the report was released...

Those same investors were having no part of Elon's pessimism, though. The good news is Elon didn't tell analysts to stop asking stupid questions during the call. He did, however, proceed to go full Buzz Killington about the Cybertruck (said it won't deliver positive cash flow for 12 to 18 months) and remarked that the company was pumping the brakes on its Mexico Gigafactory until it can get the price of cars down.

And don't get him started on the economy. Elon said he's "worried about the high interest rate environment we’re in" and is dialed in on affordability. He even compared the battle to control prices to Game of Thrones... for some reason. (Read)

What else?

+ Ok, don't freak out, but the 10-year Treasury yield is flirting with 5.0%. During yesterday's session, yields climbed to 4.9%. For those of you keeping score at home, that's the highest since 2007. Why? Because investors are being baby back b*tches about what trick J-Poww has up his sleeve next...

The fear is that recent economic data (looking at you, retail sales), will force the Fed to raise rates soon, or at the very least keep them higher for longer. Still, markets are pricing in just a 10% chance of a hike at the November 1st FOMC gathering. (Read)

+ "Seems like a next guy problem." - Jim Gorman, the outgoing CEO of Morgan Stanley. MS reported a beat on the top and bottom lines yesterday for the third quarter. And its stock proceeded to get outlined in chalk. Morgan Stanley closed down nearly 8% on the day. Because, apparently, not all beats are created equal. Investors were big mad that MS' cash cow, its wealth management biz, missed the Street's expectations by $200M. It probably didn't help that the bank said it expects net interest income in that segment to fall again in the upcoming quarter. Have they tried reminding investors "at least we're not Goldman?" (Read)

FWD

Here's what I'm keeping an eye on today...

+ AT&T, Philip Morris, Union Pacific, and American Airlines report

+ J-Poww speaks at the Economic Club of New York

EXIT

Yesterday, I asked What's the wildest thing you've ever seen someone do in a meeting?

Two of my favorites...

1) "In a packed conference room, a colleague realized his polo shirt was on inside-out; in the middle of the room, homey took off his shirt (no undershirt) flipped it right-side-out and went on about his business."

2) "Side seating in auditorium at [XYZ Co.] at all company meeting - sometime around 2003. Hand job for a lucky VP, courtesy of an assistant. She earned a nickname that day: Handy Mandy."

Here's today's question...

Every once in a while you get a little nugget of information that's just an absolute gem. For example, I found out yesterday that Potbelly, the tragically underrated sandwich chain, is publicly traded. So...

What's the best sandwich place in your town? Make sure to give the deli and town.

I mostly want this for myself but suppose I will create a database...

FINE
TYLER

Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from? No, it’s the face of a God-fearing family man with sh*t-for-brains. So, act accordingly...

This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional.