💦 The new Big 3

And Adam Neumann is back

Nom Nom

Hey there weekday warriors,

Listen, you might be bad with money, but you’ll never be as bad as this “bloke.”

Here’s what else we’re getting into today…

  • New streaming service, who dis?

  • Snap is down horrendous

  • The return of Adam Neumann

Enjoy the next 4 minutes and 16 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.

Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,

PS, check out today’s partner, Nom Nom. They take “delicious” to another level with vet nutritionist-designed dog food recipes, each perfected to tailor to your dog's weight, breed, and sensitivities.

Markets

+ US stocks “rose on Tuesday as Wall Street assessed the latest batch of corporate earnings and the timeline for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.” (CNBC)

+ The 10-year Treasury yield “fell on Tuesday as questions lingered over the path ahead for interest rate and when cuts may begin." (CNBC)

+ Oil prices “initially climbed over $1 a barrel on Tuesday after the U.S. Energy Department said crude oil production would grow less than forecast, but then gave up some of the gains on talk of a possible lengthy cease-fire in the Gaza War.” (Reuters)

+ Bitcoin climbed back about $43k on Tuesday.

+ The three most talked about stocks on WallStreetBets in the past 24 hours were: 1) Nvidia -1.60% 2) Super Micro Computer +2.75% 3) Snap +4.18% AH: -32.49%

The market moves you need to know about…

+ Another activist investor is trying to save Kohl’s… even though no one asked them to. A fund founded by a former Canadian PM has taken a stake and is pushing for a sale. Kohl’s rose 4.8% on the day.

New York Community Bancorp fell 22.2% during regular trading… and another 16.6% after hours following a downgrade from Moody’s.

+ Ford rose 6.3% on news that it had beat on the top line and its full-year outlook came in above expectations. It was so good, investors even overlooked the mounting concerns about F’s EV biz.

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The new Big 3

Power

(Source: Giphy)

Hello, police? I’d like to report an antitrust violation…

There is a new Big 3 in sports. ESPN, Fox, and Warner Bros. Discovery are partnering on a joint venture. It’ll bring the 3 media giants’ sports programming to one streaming service. I’ll save you the Google search, yes that includes ESPN (the flagship, not ESPN+).

In addition to the worldwide leader, Hulu for sports will feature all the other ESPNs (no word on The Ocho). Warner Bros. will bring TNT, TBS, and TruTV to the table. And Fox will offer up FS1, FS2, and BTN.

“Shut up and take my money…” - every sports fan

Before the service launches in the fall, there are plenty of i’s to cross and t’s to dot. Like, you know, giving this thing a name. And how much it’s going to cost. Spoiler: it likely won’t be cheap. Analysts are expecting somewhere in the $50 range.

Each company will own 1/3 of the brand-new JV. But revenue will be split proportionally based on how much each partner charges for their service. Does this mean WBD will have to give money back for TruTV?

The deal is structured so that the JV could fold in indie sports channels, like the Tennis Channel or wherever the h*ll you people watch pickleball. Apparently, NBCUniversal and Paramount weren’t even sent the RFP.

Shares of Disney fell ~1% after hours, while Fox and Warner Bros. rose.

The big picture… This could end up being the biggest misstep of Disney CEO Bob Iger’s career. There’s a reason Disney stock fell... investors were expecting a stand-alone ESPN app. Not some collaborative, synergistic bullsh*t partnership that is a bigger boon for its two competitors. To be fair, Disney can still launch a stand-alone ESPN streaming app, but it looks like this will beat it to market.

STB

+ Silver set for a ‘terrific year’ and could outperform gold to hit a 10-year high (Read)

+ Early retiree who earned $380,000 in passive income last year: Your ‘best option’ for making money while you sleep (Read)

~ ICYMI... Morningstar called this investor the biggest “wealth destroyer” (Read)

TS

+ Snap is the Boeing of social media companies… and its door plug just blew out at 30k feet…

Snap missed on the top line when it reported yesterday, but what really had investors concerned was the measly revenue growth (5%). The other major players in digital ads (think: Meta and Google) all saw double-digit growth.

Evan Spiegel also shared a piss-poor ‘24 forecast. The top line came in below the Street’s predictions, and its guesstimated net loss was larger than expected.

Shares fell more than 30% after hours.

Why should I care? There are haves and have-nots in the digital ad space. And Snap is a have-not. The company that launched (and recalled) a drone instead of figuring out how to deal with Apple’s tracking changes is losing ground to Meta, Google, and Amazon… quickly.

+ The plot for ‘WeCrashed 2’ is coming along nicely.

It appears that Adam Neumann has entered the chat… again. Dealbook reported that Neumann has made an offer to buy WeWork out of bankruptcy. A letter sent to WeWork by Neumann’s people indicates that he secured funding from Dan Loeb’s Third Point hedge fund. Third Point called the convos “preliminary.” This all checks out given Neumann’s checkered past…

What does it mean for me? Don’t get too excited, WeWork bag holders. Equity investors typically get totally wiped out during a bankruptcy. But, on the bright side, you might get to watch Adam Neumann crash and burn again…

+ “You must be this wealthy to ride.” Chipotle continues to cook, thanks largely to more affluent consumers who give zero f*cks about price hikes. A day after McDonald’s brutal earnings, CMG reported a beat on the top and bottom line and shared an outlook that was in line with the Street’s best guess. Shares were up ~3%. (Read)

+ Welp, it appears that the rumors yesterday about talks stalling between DocuSign and a potential group of buyers are true. Because just a day later, the company said it’s laying off about 6% of its workforce, or ~400 employees. Remind me again why Docusign needs 7k+ employees. Shares fell 2% on the day. (Read)

FWD

Here's what I'm keeping an eye on today...

+ Alibaba, CVS, Fox, McKesson, Disney, Uber, PayPal, Spirit, Arm, and Roblox report

+ Pioneer Natural Resources shareholders vote on the acquisition by ExxonMobil

My prediction of tomorrow’s TWC headlines, today…

~ Crystal ballin’… “New York Community Banks’ shares fall another [staggering amount], Treasury officials promise ‘everything is fine’”

Janet Yellen reassured us, “This is fine.” It might not be a “Lehman moment” but nothing feels fine at NYCB, right now.

EXIT

Yesterday, I asked Do you care if the CEO of a company you invest in uses illegal drugs?

61.3% of you didn’t care, especially if the stock price was going up.

Here’s today’s question…

What should the new ESPN/Fox/Warner Bros. sports streaming bundle be called?

Respond directly to this email and I’ll share the best names tomorrow.

Oh, and one more thing…

What did you think about today's newsletter?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

FINE

Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from?

No, it’s the face of an individual who is financially irresponsible/dumb enough to be talked into spending money on a family photo shoot that he could have just done with his iPhone. So, act accordingly...

This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional