šŸ’¦ Paramount's deal drama comes to an end

And Boeing pleads guilty

Hey there weekday warriors,

Before we get into it, I want to thank the countless readers who reached out with kind words or shared their own stories.

For those of you who didnā€™t read yesterday (shame on you for not opening TWC!), Iā€™ll leave this hereā€¦

A friendly reminder to everyone that no matter how sh*tty things areā€¦ you matter. If youā€™re having a hard time or having some dark thoughts, itā€™s OK to ask for help. Especially all the alpha males out there who think itā€™s ā€œweakā€ to talk to a therapist. Itā€™s not. I promise you. Talking to someone will make a huge difference in your life and the lives of everyone who loves you.

Go get yourself the help that you need. You can call or text 988 if youā€™re in distress. Or reach out to someone who cares about you. Or email me (seriously).

Some contextā€¦

11 years ago yesterday my dad killed himself. He battled depression for most of his adult life, but it was still totally unexpected. I still remember getting the phone call.

You think it canā€™t happen to someone you love. Until it does. If someone you give a damn about is struggling, reach out. And donā€™t stop until they get the help they need.

Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,

Markets

+ US stocks ā€œgained on Monday to start a consequential week that could provide key signals for the near-term path of interest rates.ā€ (Yahoo! Finance)

+ The 10-year Treasury yield ā€œwas little changed on Monday as investors looked ahead to key economic data due throughout the week, including fresh inflation insights." (CNBC)

+ Oil ā€œsettled lower Monday as traders weighed up fresh talks for a Gaza ceasefire deal and the potential impact of tropical storm Beryl on oil production in the Gulf of Mexico.ā€ (Reuters)

+ Bitcoin ā€œretook $57,000 Monday morning, after slipping below $55,000 just a few hours earlier. This volatile start to the week has seen almost $160 million worth of BTC liquidations take place.ā€ (Decrypt)

+ The three most talked about stocks on WallStreetBets in the past 24 hours were: 1) Nvidia +1.8% 2) Tesla +0.5% 3) Intel +6.1%

The market moves you need to know aboutā€¦

ā€“ High-end home decor and furniture retailer Arhaus continues to spiral. Shares fell 6.5% after Jeffries slashed its rating on the company. Fears of a slowdown in the residential real estate market are weighing heavy on the company.

+ Shares of ASML climbed just 0.2%. But it was enough to push the maker of chip-making equipment to a new all-time high. ASML rose in anticipation of a big earnings report from its biggest customer, TSMC.

ā€“ Annnd itā€™s gone. Shares of Koss plummeted 21.4% as some of that meme stock magic faded (read: Roaring Kitty didnā€™t divulge a position as expected).

Series final

Source: Giphy

Our long national nightmare is overā€¦

Paramount (-5.3%) has finally inked a deal with Skydance. Which means the ā€œParamount merger rumorsā€ canā€™t hurt you anymore.

Details, pleaseā€¦

Skydance, which is controlled by nepo baby David Ellison (heā€™s the son of Larry Ellison, the founder of Oracle), will purchase National Amusements for $2.4B in straight cash, homie.

Wait, I thought we were talking about Paramountā€¦

Yes, but also, no.

Shari Redstoneā€™s National Amusements owns ~10% of Paramountā€™s outstanding equity but controls 77% of voting shares. So itā€™s the only shareholder that really matters.

Speaking of whichā€¦

Bad news, peasants.

Skydance dgaf about you. While voting shares (Class A) will be acquired for $23, Class B (read: the ones you and I can buy) can be cashed out for just $15 a pop. FWIW, theyā€™re currently trading at ~$11ā€¦

Whatā€™s next?

After Skydance acquires National Amusements, itā€™ll use its voting power to merge with Paramount. The new Skydance will be worth $4.75B.

And David Ellison has promised to inject nearly $6B worth of cash into the company. Partially to pay down debt, and mostly to make Paramount+ suck a whole lot less.

Keep in mind there is a 45-day ā€œgo shopā€ period meaning National Amusements can solicit other (presumably, better) bids. There has been interest from some heavy hitters like Sony, Apollo, and more recently, IACā€™s Barry Diller.

TS

+ Sure, there were signs that Elliott Management was about to launch a proxy fight against Southwest Airlines (+1.5%). Like S-Dub ingesting a poison pill and expanding its board (two classic tactics).

But Paul Singerā€™s fund made it official on Monday. It threatened to take up arms against the companyā€™s current board and management should it not get its sh*t together. And you thought you had a bad hangover yesterday.

Elliott has two major bones to pick: CEO Bob Jordan and executive chairman Gary Kelly. The activist fund is hoping to oust both of them, citing their unwillingness to consider ideas from outsiders (ā€¦ like Elliott).

+ In what has to be the most open and shut case of all time, Boeing (+0.5%) is officially a felon.

It pled guilty to misleading regulators about safety issues leading up to not one, but two 737 MAX crashes that killed 346 people. Itā€™ll have to pay a $244M fine and commit to spending $455M to improve safety compliance over the next 3 years.

Of course, this is a relative slap on the wrist. Victimsā€™ families were seeking as much as $25B. Oh, and typically a corporation labeled a felon would be barred from inking contracts with the US government. But in all likelihood, Boeing will be given a waiver.

+ Imagine hearing a company in your portfolio is getting acquiredā€¦ only to find out itā€™s selling for approximately its current stock price. Bain Capital is this close to closing a deal to acquire Envestnet (+0.2%) for ~$3.5B.

+ ā€œLook at me, Iā€™m the captain now.ā€ - Nvidia

Not that itā€™s a contest, but if it was, Nvidia just cucked Tesla. NVDA is now the single-stock ETF king (think: leveraged or inverse single-stock ETFs). NVDA represents nearly half of all the $ in single-stock ETFs, with $6B. Tesla boasts just $1B. You hate to see it.

FWD

ā© Today weā€™re keeping an eye onā€¦

+ The Sun Valley Conference starts in Sun Valley (duh), Idaho. It brings together a whoā€™s who of media and tech titans to talk shop

+ J-Poww gets grilled by Senators during his semiannual Congressional report on monetary policy

EXIT

Yesterday I asked ā€œWho would you rather trade lives with (Zuck, Bezos, Elon)?ā€ā€¦

  1. Bezos

  2. Zuck

  3. Elon

Per the comment section, Bezos got the nod mostly because he is ā€œretiredā€ and lives the dream. Zuck got some love because heā€™s the youngest. And no one wants ā€œlike 20 kidsā€ according to one comment (sorry, Elon).

Hereā€™s todayā€™s questionā€¦

Warren Buffett wonā€™t be at the Sun Valley Conference this year. Soā€¦

You get to have lunch with one of the GOATs at the Sun Valley Conference, who you picking?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

Weā€™re all going to be fineā€¦

Oh, and one more thingā€¦

What did you think about today's newsletter?

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FINE

Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from?

No, itā€™s the face of an individual who is financially irresponsible/dumb enough to be talked into spending money on a family photo shoot that he could have just done with his iPhone. So, act accordingly...

This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional.