TOGETHER WITH

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Hey there weekday warriors,

Robinhood began allowing users to bet on the election, and what could possibly go wrong?

Enjoy the next 4 minutes and 14 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.

Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,

– tyler

+ US stocks “climbed on Monday to kick off a pivotal week packed with Big Tech earnings, an inflation update, and a crucial monthly jobs report.” (Yahoo! Finance)

+ The 10-year Treasury yield “continued its ascent on Monday after hitting a three-month high last week.” (CNBC)

+ Oil “tumbled 6% on Monday, or more than $4 a barrel, after Saturday's retaliatory strike by Israel against Iran's military bypassed oil and nuclear facilities, not disrupting energy supplies.” (Reuters)

+ Bitcoin “rose slightly on Monday after logging a muted performance over the weekend as a push towards record highs was muddled by a report that the U.S. government was probing stablecoin giant Tether.” (Investing)

+ The three most talked about stocks on WallStreetBets in the past 24 hours were: 1) Tesla -2.4% 2) Nvidia -0.7% 3) Trump Media +21.5%

The market moves you need to know about…

+ Trump Media popped 21.5% on Monday. Spoiler: it isn't because Truth Social is suddenly printing money. As polls and gambling markets (see below) show election momentum shifting towards Trump, investors are betting that TMTG will be a big winner.

– Philips, the Dutch medical device maker known for its electric toothbrushes and sleep apnea machines that alleviate snoring, but also may or may not cause cancer (it's called, tradeoffs, people) got crushed on Monday. Shares fell 15.9%, marking its worst single day in 26 years after the company slashed its full-year sales forecast.

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You bet

Robinhood: “We definitely don’t gamify trading anymore. Seriously, we got rid of the confetti when you buy a stock.”

Also, Robinhood: “Step right up. You can now bet on who is going to win the Presidential election.”

Yesterday, Robinhood (+3.0%) announced that it would allow users to bet on the 2024 Presidential election via its derivatives unit. And we can all agree that Vlad Tenev will halt trading on one of the candidates when Ken Griffin applies even the slightest amount of pressure, right?

If this whole idea sounds familiar, it’s because Kalshi made election betting markets a reality earlier this month.

You see, Kalshi fought the good fight against the CFTC (think: backed up the Brinks truck for lawyers)… so that HOOD could introduce the product to its massive user base. I love the smell of capitalism in the morning…

Bet on it…

Robinhood joins Kalshi in an increasingly crowded market that also includes Interactive Brokers in the US and Polymarket abroad.

Speaking of Polymarket, which sounds like a dating app for Mormons… the "eLeCTIOn INTerFErEncE" crowd lost their collective mind last week when massive bets started rolling in on Donny Politics to win.

Turns out it was just one French dude with 4 accounts gambling millions of dollars that Donald Trump would be the next President of the United States.

The next 7 days are about to be a degens wet dream…

+ With the launch of Apple (+0.8%) Intelligence yesterday, users of the iPhone 14 and below will be ridiculed by their peers and looked down upon by society. Although they still won’t be as lowly as the green text gang.

Apple's new suite of AI tools will only be compatible with the two latest versions of the iPhone (15 & 16), presumably to teach the pikers to ‘stop being poor’.

The mobile phone gentry class will get access to "writing tools that can proofread or rewrite text, new features that can remove objects from photos and a feature that can summarize a stack of notifications into a single message." So, day 1 stuff for ChatGPT.

The launch is also our weekly reminder that Apple Intelligence's rollout may go down as a masterclass in what not to do.

The clusterf*ck of a debut saw the iPhone 16 ship without Apple Intelligence. And yesterday’s launch didn’t include ChatGPT integration and image generation capabilities, which we’ll reportedly get later this month. Oh, and Siri won't work inside apps until next year at the earliest.

+ Boeing (-2.7%) has got an idea so crazy it might just work... but probably not, if recent history is any indication.

The company that's down worse than P. Diddy's baby oil plug, just announced it was raising ~$19B via two secondary offerings.

And in case you were wondering just how bleak things are at Boeing, that should help it keep the lights on through 2026...

+ Who amongst us?

Olympus, the company that probably made your first-ever digital camera, which has pivoted to medical equipment, fired its CEO for purchasing illegal drugs. Shares fell 8.4% on news that Olympus probably has lame-a** holiday parties.

+ The only thing more disappointing than Ford’s (-5.9%) outlook during yesterday’s earnings call is the pizza in its hometown (don’t @ me Detroiters). The company that pioneered cursed the human race with the 40-hour work week beat on the top and bottom lines for Q3, but warned of slowing sales. F said it expects its EBIT to be closer to $10B, the lower end of its original annual guidance.

+ JPMorgan begins suing customers who allegedly stole thousands of dollars in ‘infinite money glitch’. Does anyone know a good lawyer? Asking for a friend…

+ Use this 4-point checklist to fail productively: Mistakes can teach you ‘what the path looks like,’ HBS professor says. 

+ The 'irresistible' real estate bet gripping investors. Spoiler: it isn’t house hacking.

🔥 This Texas city has the lowest cost of living in the U.S.: There is ‘investment in the area keeps home prices low,’ expert says. Spoiler: it is not Austin.

FYI, TWC might be compensated if you click on the links above. So, what are you waiting for? Start clicking.

⏪ Yesterday, On Semi reported before the bell. Waste Management, Ford, and VF Corp. dropped earnings after hours.

⏩ Today we’re keeping an eye on…

+ McDonald's, Pfizer, HSBC, PayPal, BP, Crocs, and JetBlue reports this morning

+ Google, Visa, AMD, Stryker, Chipotle, Electronic Arts, Reddit, and Snap drop earnings after the close

+ Consumer Confidence data drops

Yesterday, I asked, “What is the protocol for phones at a restaurant (dinner)?”

Away (in your pocket/purse) won with 67.3% of the vote. Followed by on the table, but face down.

Here’s what some of you guys had to say (and my thoughts in italics)…

• On table, face down: “There are still people who don't have their phone with them at all times?”

• Away: “Unless there's an emergency, stop being the adult equivalent of an iPad kid.”

• Don't bring it: “If you don't bring your phone they can't make you scan a QR code to read the menu on a 5 inch screen.”

• On the table, face up: “I get instantly pissed with dumb rules about cell phones. I’m a grown woman! If I choose to have my phone on the table, in my hand etc, that’s my choice. We’re not in high school! If the conversation is interesting enough, you’ll keep my attention:/”

• Away: “Don't be a douche.”

• Away: “Who the f*** put their phone on their lap?” Please see below…

• On your lap: "On my lap, face down”

And here’s today’s question…

+ The zero revenue AI company vs. the $500k per year local HVAC company

🔥 Turns out you might want to be a Domino’s shareholder…

Oh, and one more thing…

Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from?

No, it’s the face of an individual who is financially irresponsible/dumb enough to be talked into spending money on a family photo shoot that he could have just done with his iPhone. So, act accordingly...

This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional.