Hey there weekday warriors,

Based on your feedback, I’m trying something a little bit different today: a carefully curated roundup of the most compelling investment ideas I came across this week (that should not be confused with investment advice). These are sourced directly from masters of the universe (and probably at least a few guys whose dad got them the job).

But before we get into it…

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Enjoy the next 4 minutes and 30 seconds of blue-chip ideas and research.

Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,

- tyler

This is Definitely NOT Investment Advice…

… it’s a carefully curated round-up of some of the most compelling ideas available this week.

I only considered ideas from reputable sources (think: analysts, hedge funds, and family offices). Sorry, gurus. And I looked at everything through the lens of a buy-and-hold investor. If you want to day-trade, go join a 13-year-old’s Discord.

I think this goes without saying, but you should always do your own research.

Ok, here’s what we’re deep-diving on today…

• Liberty Formula One (FWONA)

• Bitcoin (yes, really)

• AMD (AMD)

• Chipotle (CMG)

Liberty Formula One

There is only one type of person who is more insufferable than people who watch the Premiere League and look down on anyone who watches “American football”: F1 fans (and by that I mean anyone who watched Drive to Survive and won’t stop talking about it).

But maybe that’s why F1’s parent company is one of TD Cowen’s top picks for 2024…

+ Do you smell that? It’s the sweet, sweet aroma of recurring revenue. F1 locks in lucrative sponsorships and TV rights years in advance. The business model helps insulate it from economic sh*tstorms, like, say, a hard landing…

+ Moar Formula 1 in 2024… which means now you’ll need to explain to your significant other why you need to watch two more races that Max Verstappen will win anyway. The F1 schedule will increase from 22 to 24 races in the upcoming season. Spoiler: that’s two more opportunities to sell sponsorship packages and $17 Heinekens. And unlike the NFL which is hamstrung by a powerful players’ union (*throws up in mouth a little*)/humans sacrificing life and limb (and, more importantly, traumatic brain injury), the F1 season could, in theory, be expanded further should demand support it.

+ Despite 19% year-over-year TV growth in the US from 2022 to 2023… penetration in the land of the free and the home of the brave is still relatively low and growth is expected to be of the hockey stick variety until further notice. F1 is doing what soccer has been wet dreaming about for decades.

+ In 2024, the China Grand Prix is returning, because apparently, F1 has no moral compass (which, to be fair, is a positive catalyst in itself). So, to recap, F1 has barely put a dent in the two largest economies in the world…

+ Cable providers and streamers want premium sports injected directly into their veins. Don’t believe me? Apple is reportedly willing to pony up $2B per year for F1’s global broadcasting rights in 2025.

Bitcoin

Ok, stay with me for a minute, boomers...

Bitcoin is hot in the Streets. Sure, it’s easy to go all Jamie Dimon and pan it as the preferred currency of terrorists and drug dealers (to be fair, he isn’t wrong…).

But some pretty powerful folks in finance think the only place Bitcoin is going is to the moon…

+ Forgive me for beating a dead horse, but… bitcoin ETFs are coming (probably). ICYMI, Grayscale won a major victory over the SEC that could allow for approval of its spot bitcoin ETF (spoiler: this would be bitcoin’s “mainstream” moment).

+ Recent economic indicators point towards the Fed cutting rates next year. At least, that’s what markets are pricing in for the back half of 2024. And, it turns out, a dovish Fed is conducive to risky assets like bitcoin…

+ I’ll halve what she’s halving. Bitcoin will be halving next year. At some point in early to mid-2024 the reward for mining one block will be cut in half from 6.25 bitcoin to 3.125 (because math). Prices have spiked ahead of, and a few months after halvings in the past…

+ Supply and demand. One of the biggest drivers behind BTC’s recent ascent has been HODLing (“hold on don’t leave”). More than 70% of outstanding bitcoin has remained unmoved for more than a year. Let that sink in…

AMD

There was nothing micro about AMD’s gainz this week. The stock popped more than 10% on Thursday on news that it is shipping its new chip that’s coming for Nvidia’s crown...

But analysts think investors should pump the brakes…

- AMD’s market share is ~4% compared to Nvidia’s 80%. That is not a typo. So, while it’s great that AMD thinks the AI chip market will be worth $400B by 2027, it needs to make moves.

- Speaking of Nvidia… there’s a reason it owns a f*ck ton of market share. It’s basically the Apple of AI chips. It’s built out an entire ecosystem that includes chips and software. That’s something AMD can’t offer (yet).

- At the moment AMD’s chips boast superior “inference performance” vs. Nvidia’s. Unfortunately for AMD, Nvidia is about to roll out a new chip that cucks theirs. Also, some analysts called bullsh*t on how performance is actually measured in chips.

- “iT’s BaKEd iN.” AMD shares have risen 100% YTD. So, yeah, it’s not surprising some people think its innovation and growth are already baked into its stock price.

Chipotle

“If it’s good enough for Bill Ackman, it’s good enough for me.” - William Blair analysts, probably

CMG is one of Bill’s top 5 holdings (to be fair, his 13-F reads like a diabetics wet dream: Chipotle, Restaurant Brands, and up until recently, Domino’s).

+ “It’s so f*cking big.”

Unlike the burrito makers portions, Chipotle’s margins are expected to grow in 2024 and beyond. Two innovations could unlock profit margins: “Chipotlane” drive-thrus and its loyalty program could help grow already healthy margins (30%+ at some restaurants). Look no further than McDonald’s to see the benefits of a loyalty program.

+ Fun fact: Chipotle hasn’t even started large-scale expansion into international markets yet. I know, I was shocked to find out that Chipotle wasn’t an export of Mexico, too. The expectation is that international expansion could begin with lucrative licensing deals (spoiler: high-margin agreements).

+ And Chipotle won’t sleep until every single American is only a short drive from their nearest norovirus provider. Currently, CMG has ~3.2k Mexican Grills. It plans to more than double its footprint over the next few years. To be fair, it wasn’t exactly clear over what time period the company is planning to bless every town in America with a Chipotlane.

+ If you’re more of a glass-half-empty kinda investor (read: think a recession is in the cards for 2024), let’s not forget that Chipotle weathered inflation with flying colors. Turns out, consumers won’t let anything stand between them and really mediocre carne asada. Even price hikes. Or losing their jobs.

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One more thing…

Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from?

No, it’s the face of a God-fearing family man with sh*t-for-brains. So, act accordingly...

This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional.