Hey there weekday warriors,

On Tuesday, I officially announced TWCPrimePlus+, The Water Coolest’s premium (yes, that means paid) subscription. Don’t worry, your daily morning newsletter will always be free.

(Logo reveal for those of you who have been MIA)…

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Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,

- tyler

+ US stocks "continued their rally on Wednesday with investors embracing the idea that abruptly cooling inflation will put interest rate hikes on ice." (Yahoo! Finance)

+ The 10-year Treasury yield "rebounded Wednesday despite signs of slowing inflation after a revision of retail sales data showed strong gains in September." (Yahoo! Finance)

+ Oil "tumbled more than 1.5% on Wednesday on a bigger-than-expected rise in U.S. crude inventories and record production in the world's biggest producer, along with mounting worries about demand in Asia." (Reuters)

+ Bitcoin went hard in

the paint on Wednesday.

+ The three most talked about stocks on WallStreetBets in the past 24-hours were: 1) Nvidia -1.55% 2) Visa +0.49% 3) Target +17.81%.

You sandbagging son of a b*tch

Target just put on a masterclass in underpromising and over-delivering.

Despite sales falling (again), Target had investors wetter than your mom when the new Chip and Joanna Gaines x Target collab drops. You see, Walmart’s little brother managed to beat top and bottom line expectations by a girthy margin.

TGT closed the day up 17.75%. Which, for the record, still means it’s down 14% on the year.

Not all earnings beats are created equal

This could be the worst “good” quarter of all time. Hear me out…

Sales fell 5% year over year. For f*ck’s sake, even digital sales plummeted 6% vs. the same quarter last year.

“oK FiNe, BuT pRofIT juMpeD 36%!” - the kind of people who think Target is a personality trait

I’ll just leave this quick history lesson right here…

Last year’s Q3 was basically a 3-month “everything must go sale.” Bogged down with excess inventory, Target put on its deal sleds and slashed prices with reckless abandon. Spoiler: that ate into margins and made comps for this year very favorable.

But that’s the end of the bad news, right?

Not exactly. Target mentioned that shoppers are still being thrifty as f*ck. As in, “let’s just buy groceries… and hold off on that new air fryer, Nance.”

And the retail giant doesn’t even think it’ll get back to sales growth in the holiday quarter. Target expects sales to fall again in Q4.

As if Target didn’t have enough on its Hearth & Hand by Magnolia plate, the chain continues to be plagued by in-store theft. Which got me thinking… have they considered hiring the crack team that rid SF of crime ahead of Xi Jinping’s visit?

+ Microsoft Office will now use AI to make meetings less painful (Read)

+ New Study Reveals 10 Home Buying Myths, Sets The Record Straight On Real Estate Misconceptions (Read)

+ ICYMI yesterday... This chart shows why millennials, the biggest generation in American history, will keep housing prices sky-high for years to come (Read)

+ Voting. Jury duty. Buying sh*t with reckless abandon. These are the civic duties that form the very foundation upon which the United States of America is built. And it appears that some of you are not living up to your end of the bargain. Retail sales fell 0.1% in October. That’s the first monthly decline since March. But, to be fair, economists were expecting a 0.3% drop. (Read)

+ J-Poww has a lot to be thankful for lately. Like the producer price index falling 0.5% month over month. The masters of the universe were expecting just a 0.1% decrease in wholesale prices. The last time PPI dropped this much, we were still trying to flatten the curve (think: April 2020). (Read)

+ Elon has certainly made some questionable financial decisions. Buying Twitter for $44B comes to mind. But even Elon YOLOing an IPO in this environment seems unlikely. Bloomberg reported that SpaceX has plans to spin-off and IPO its Starlink biz as soon as late next year. Their source? Trust us. Elon’s response on X? “false.” (Read)

+ VW inked a deal to replace the Vatican’s ICE vehicles with an all-electric fleet by 2030… and it appears that no one checked into Volkswagen’s “humble beginnings.” It isn’t clear if the deal includes the Popemobile or not. Financial terms weren’t disclosed, but you have to assume that the carmaker offered the friends and family discount to the Vicar of Christ on earth, right? (Read)

+ “I’m too old for this sh*t.” - Bob Iger, probably. Getting double-teamed by activist investors probably wasn’t atop Disney CEO Bob Iger’s to-do list upon making his triumphant return. But alas, here we are. In addition to Trian Management’s stake, news broke yesterday that ValueAct has built a sizeable portfolio full of Disney stock. But, on the bright side, shares jumped 3% on the day. (Read)

Here's what I'm keeping an eye on today...

+ Walmart, Alibaba, Applied Materials, Macy's, and Gap report

Yesterday I asked What’s the biggest power move in the business world?

Some of my favorites…

• Repeatedly calling someone of power the wrong name

• Passing out raised lettering, pale nimbus white business cards to colleagues

• Musk ripping a blunt on Joe Rogan

• Stuffing the auditors in the smallest, most air-conditioned room in the entire building

James Dolan is apparently trying to convince Beyoncé to do a residency at the Sphere in Vegas. So…

Who/what do you want to see at the Sphere?

Reply directly to this email and I’ll share the best answers tomorrow.

Oh, and one more thing…

Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from?

No, it’s the face of a God-fearing family man with sh*t-for-brains. So, act accordingly...

This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional.