Hey there weekday warriors,

(Heads up, if you already know the yuge news about the future of The Water Coolest, you can skip this part...)

By now you've probably seen the headlines and the posts about some changes at Barstool. And, well, things are changing on my end too...

After nearly two years at Barstool, The Water Coolest is going independent (again). And I'll be in the driver's seat, which means not a damn thing is going to change (except, the logo and some legal language... obviously).

"So, do I have to do anything?" - you, probably

Yep. We'll be sending from thewatercoolest.com domain (again). So, to ensure you always get the emails, you should tell your email provider that you're cool with getting emails from [email protected].

Here's how to do it...

1. Add [email protected] to your address book/tell your email provider we're safe (here are instructions for every email provider).

2. That's it.

I appreciate you coming along for the ride. And if you have any questions, you can reach out directly at [email protected].

Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,

Tyler

PS, Have some questions? Concerns? Been hoping to collab? Just want to chat? Drop me a note >

+ US stocks were mixed on Tuesday as "upside momentum was stifled by a jump in Treasury yields following stronger retail sales data that underscored ongoing strength in the economy, stoking fresh fears about another Federal Reserve rate hike before year end." (Investing.com)

+ The 10-year Treasury yield "surged on Tuesday as robust economic data and strong third-quarter earnings suggested the Federal Reserve may keep policy tight for longer than expected." (Reuters)

+ Oil "edged higher on Tuesday as investors wait to see if U.S. diplomatic efforts and a trip by President Joe Biden to Israel will prevent the conflict in the Middle East from widening." (Reuters)

+ Bitcoin "and numerous altcoins rallied to restore the bullish momentum commonly associated with 'Uptober.'" (Cointelegraph)

+ The three most talked about stocks on WallStreetBets in the past 24-hours were: 1) Nvidia -3.24% 2) Visa +0.50% 3) Tesla +0.39%.

Trade wars

Shares of Nvidia are up just 207% for the year of our lord 2023 after yesterday's bloodbath. You hate to see it...

The chipmaker that's powering the AI revolution (and demise of the human race) fell 3.2% on the day. And there's only one man to blame. Looking at you, Joey Politics...

The White House implemented new restrictions​ on chip exports to China and a bunch of other countries we hate (think: Iran and Russia). But, get this... it wasn't retaliation against a specific frenemy of Uncle Sam's. Nope, it was more of a slap on the wrist aimed at Nvidia and its competitors that had already figured out a workaround for the first set of rules. Man, I love capitalism.

Instead of doing the United States a solid, Nvidia (and its fellow chipmakers) found a loophole in the WH's original order by shipping "slowed down" versions of chips to the United States' adversaries. The latest set of rules will focus on computing power instead of speed, making them unf*ckwithable. Game. Set. Match.

Nvidia promises that its financials won't be materially impacted... in the short term at least. Although the selloff would indicate investors think otherwise...

Back in my day...

The trade wars have certainly come a long way from fighting over soybeans circa 2019...

The White House's latest b*tch slapping of President Xi (and other world leaders in POTUS' burn book) is all in the name of national security​. The advanced chips could be used to develop weapons and do other sketchy stuff (like create more of those Kendall Jenner deepfakes​) that could threaten the land of the free and the home of the brave.

The big question is how will China respond? Last time around, Beijing clapped back with export controls on certain metals used in chip making. Spoiler: the types of metals we don't have here in the US.

And, I probably don't need to remind you, but this is all developing against the backdrop of a geopolitical clusterf*ck in the Middle East that could have much farther reaching implications.

+ This company pays employees to play pickleball: ‘Work should be fun’ (Read)

+ 33-Year-Old Who Co-Owns 167 Rental Properties Explains The Ups And Downs Of The BRRRR Method (Read)

+ ICYMI yesterday... NFL Player Arik Armstead Gives A Line-By-Line Breakdown Of His Paycheck (Read)

+ The American consumer has got a fever and the only prescription is buying more things. Retail sales came in hot for September. Sales grew 0.7% vs. 0.3% expected. Even when you strip out retailers like gas stations (so, fuel) and car dealers (cars... obviously) sales grew much more than expected.

To be fair, those numbers aren't adjusted for inflation. But let's remember that the CPI came in at 0.4% for September... which means consumers made it rain above and beyond inflation. Because, you know, math.

Of course, there's nothing J-Poww hates more than Americans getting their retail therapy on. The Central Bank keeps tabs on the retail sales figures when making monetary policy decisions. And this type of report could force the Fed to keep rates higher for longer. Which explains Treasury yields mooning and stocks getting put in a body bag. (Read)

What else?

+ Name a better way to make everyone forget all about that retail bank you tried to start than dropping a yuge earnings beat. DJ D-Sol put on a masterclass in distracting investors with a shiny object. Goldman beat on the top and bottom lines, thanks largely to its bond traders. Exhibit A: revenue in the fixed income division came in $600M above estimates. Shares fell 1% on the day, despite Solomon's best efforts to stop the bleeding (read: his decision to stop DJing major public events​). (Read)

+ Wake up, babe... a new hostile takeover is brewing. Yesterday, Wyndham rejected a $7.8B cash and stock takeover bid from Choice Hotels. Wyndham called the offer underwhelming, not unlike the way most people would describe their hotels. The takeover target also raised regulatory concerns, since the two budget chains would dominate the "secondary" city (read: sad excuses of metropolises) market. Things could get juicy soon, considering Choice Hotels decided to go public with the discussions that began in April. Shares of Wyndham jumped 9% to $75, which is still well below the offer price. (Read)

+ We're at the point in EV maker Lucid's epic collapse where they start shipping partially assembled cars and try to pass them off as deliveries. Lucid finally (it delayed its announcement​) reported delivery numbers... and now it's clear why they kicked the can down the road. The SPAC "darling" delivered 1.5k cars, less than the 2k expected. But, by far, the most "Nikola" comment made by the EV maker was that roughly 700 partially assembled whips were on their way to Saudi Arabia for completion. Define "spin zone." Shares fell 5% on the day, which feels like a win if I'm being totally honest... (Read)

Here's what I'm keeping an eye on today...

+ Tesla, P&G, Netflix, and Morgan Stanley report

+ The Federal Reserve Beige Book drops

+ Three FOMC members speak, a day after that brutal retail sales data

Yesterday, I asked What is the worst thing you can get fired for?

You guys are all horny as hell. Pretty much every answer was jerking it or having sex at work. I guess I should have seen that coming.

Here's today's question...

There's a pic floating around on LinkedIn of AirAsia's CEO getting a shirtless massage... during a company meeting​. So...

What's the wildest thing you've ever seen someone do in a meeting?

Respond directly to this email and I'll share the best answers tomorrow.

Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from? No, it’s the face of a God-fearing family man with sh*t-for-brains. So, act accordingly...

This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional.