Today, we’re getting into Anthropic’s big win, Starbucks’ new pricing model, and McDonald’s and Krispy Kreme call it quits. But first...

In the June 25, 2025 edition of The Water Coolest, we talked about Shein filing for a confidential IPO in London after Beijing made it clear a US offering was off the table.

Life comes at you fast. Just a year later, its Hong Kong IPO (yup, the fun police in China didn’t like the idea of a London IPO either…) is on ice. The trade war between the US and China has wreaked havoc on its business. Especially the US closing the de minimus exemption loophole.

Enjoy the next 4 minutes and 28 seconds of blue-chip news and commentary.

Keep on snapping necks and cashing checks,

– tyler

PS, loving The Water Coolest? Forward it to someone who gets more than one pump at Starbucks. If you CC me ([email protected]), I’ll send you both something.

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“I’ve got some good news, and I’ve got some bad news…” - the judge hearing the Anthropic copyright infringement case

First, the good news: it’s totally kosher for Anthropic to train its large language model on books written by the group of authors who brought the lawsuit. Something about “fair use doctrine.”

Now, the bad news: Anthropic illegally downloading those books (presumably via Limewire) to build “a central library” of “all the books in the world” to keep “forever” is incredibly illegal. And not the gray area kind of illegal. Like really, really illegal. Anthropic is basically the SBF of the publishing industry...

What does it all mean?

Anthropic can use books (or at least the plaintiffs’ books) to train its models… just not ones that it pirated for free. It’ll stand trial for its colossal f*ck up. And it could be costly (up to $150k in statutory damages per work). Who is going to tell them they could have just rented from the library for free?

Why should I care?

This is a BFD considering it’s the first major decision in a case involving owners of copyrighted media suing a major tech player for ripping its content to train AI. There are countless suits working their way through the courts…

Bartz vs. Anthropic could set a precedent and shift the economics of training large language models.

That sound you heard was Sam Altman going from six to midnight after realizing he can stop paying for training materials as long as he yells “fair use” loud enough.

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+ “If it is to be said, so it be, so it is.” - Cousin Greg Jerome Powell speaking to the House Financial Services Committee

J-Poww spoke with Congress on Tuesday as part of his required bi-annual testimony. The Fed chair, who was dubbed a “very dumb, hardheaded person” earlier in the day by Donny Politics, stuck to the script.

He reiterated that the job market is solid, but there are still too many unknowns about inflation (mostly tariffs). Jerry Interest Rates reminded everyone that he’s in no hurry to cut rates, telling the House Financial Services Committee that the Fed is “well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”

When asked how he’s handling the political pressure from President Trump, Jay answered like a Big 10 football coach whose team’s grit was questioned publicly by an AAC program: “They’re having no effects. We’re doing our jobs.”

+ Imagine being a one-pump chump… when you can get as many as you’d like for just 80 cents…

Starbucks $SBUX ( ▲ 0.29% ) is updating how it charges for the kinda stuff that takes your drinks from unhealthy, to “diabeetus” in the time it takes to squirt 1 fl oz of liquid sugar into your Trenta White Chocolate Mocha Frapp. From here on out, all sauces and syrups will cost 80 cents, no matter how many pumps or squirts your barista is delivering.

The company is also testing real-time pricing updates in-app. Drink modifications will change the price as you build your masterpiece. Previously, you’d have to wait until checkout to see how big of a BNPL loan you need for your morning caffeine fix.

+ Iran this… Israel that… why are our leaders not focusing on the pressing issues here at home? Like how Krispy Kreme $DNUT ( ▼ 0.75% ) can’t make a collab with McDonald’s $MCD ( ▲ 2.07% ) profitable. The donut shop is officially pulling out of the partnership that allowed it to sell its fried and glazed baked goods at more than 2.4k Golden Arches nationwide. KK (yes, I checked like 5 times that I only wrote 2 Ks) blamed slow sales and pointed out that delivering that many donuts is a f*cking nightmare.

+ I think Walmart $WMT ( ▲ 1.3% ) just invented warehouses. The company is reportedly testing “dark stores”… which will store goods set to be shipped, but won’t be open to the public. Meanwhile, Target $TGT ( ▲ 1.67% ) is planning to cut out the middleman altogether. Its latest supply chain scheme? Get its Temu on and deliver straight from the factory.

+ Remember that time regulators told Robinhood $HOOD ( ▼ 1.76% ) to stop gamifying investing? Welp, Vlad is back on his bullsh*t. Yesterday, HOOD began offering customers a 1% match on all crypto transfers (think: leave Coinbase for RH).

But if Robinhood customers transfer more than $500M (total) in crypto before July 7th, that bonus doubles. And this is giving major DraftKings vibes. Shares mooned on the launch…

+ US stocks “rose while oil prices plummeted again on Tuesday, as investors bet that a delicate ceasefire between Israel and Iran will hold.” (CNBC)

+ The 10-year yield was “lower on Tuesday even after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he is in no hurry to push for interest rate cuts as the impact of tariffs plays out. Traders also kept an eye on a fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel.” (CNBC)

+ Oil “fell 6% on Tuesday to settle at a two-week low, on expectations the ceasefire between Israel and Iran will reduce the risk of oil supply disruptions in the Middle East.” (Reuters)

+ Bitcoin “recovered some of its recent losses on Tuesday, heading 3.5% higher by the afternoon to trade around the $105,427 mark as the world waits for more news on the Iran-Israel ceasefire.” (Yahoo! Finance)

⏪ Yesterday…

+ Carnival reported in the AM

+ FedEx reported after hours

+ Jerome Powell testified to the House Financial Services Committee

⏩ Today we’re keeping an eye on…

+ General Mills and Paychex report before the bell

+ Micron and Jeffries report after hours

+ Jerome Powell will testify to the Senate Banking Committee

+ Nvidia will hold its annual meeting of shareholders

Yesterday, I asked, “What should we name the ‘TWC Dumb*ss of the Week’ distinction?”

Some great ideas from you guys. Now it’s time for Round 2 of voting.

As a reminder…

We're going to start handing out an award for the person or organization from the previous week that made us feel good about ourselves by f*cking up spectacularly. Think about it like the Nobel Prize for Being a Dumb*ss in Business. Or SportsCenter's Not Top 10 for Capitalism.

We talk about them all week in the newsletter, so let’s crown a king or queen of the knuckleheads on Friday.

Help me choose a name for this Grammy-award-for-people-who-are-about-to-be-at-the-recieving-end-of-a-shareholder-class-action-lawsuit…

Oh, and one more thing…

Made in America & Sent from my BlackBerry Storm 2. Please excuse any mistakes and typos.

Does this look like the face of a guy you should take financial advice from?

No, it’s the face of an individual who is financially irresponsible/dumb enough to be talked into spending money on a family photo shoot that he could have just done with his iPhone. So, act accordingly...

This is not financial advice. Nothing in this newsletter is an investment recommendation. All content is created for entertainment, educational, or informational purposes only. Do your own research, or do yourself a favor and hire a professional.